FXUS63 KICT 111138

AFDICT



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS

538 AM CST THU MAR 11 2010



.AVIATION...12Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU

MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL MUCH OF THE FORECAST VALID PERIOD. 

DEEP CLOSED LOW ACROSS NORTHWEST MISSOURI WILL WOBBLE SLIGHTLY 

NORTH TODAY BEFORE DRIFTING SOUTH AGAIN TONIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP 

A BRISK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WILL WRAP 

MOISTURE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN 

KANSAS. CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE AGAIN BY 

THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE ACROSS

CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS COULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS ALONG

WITH THE EXPECTED MVFR CIGS.



KED



&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 241 AM CST THU MAR 11 2010/ 



DISCUSSION...



TODAY & TONIGHT:

FORECAST CREATURE FEATURE IS OCCLUDED CYCLONE THAT'LL GYRATE OVER NE KS/

NRN MO/SRN IA & ERN NEBRASKA IN RESPONSE TO ADJACENT RIDGE AXES THAT'LL 

AMPLIFY AS THIS PERIOD PROGRESSES. THE CYCLONE'S PRESENCE WILL TRANSLATE

INTO PERIODS OF -RA (POSSIBLY MIXED WITH -SN LATE TONIGHT). CHANCES FOR 

-RA SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS THE AFORE-MENTIONED CYCLONE DRIFTS NWD 

THIS AFTERNOON. INHERITED POPS/WX FIT THIS SCENARIO QUITE WELL SO LITTLE

CHANGE IN OVERALL FORECAST REQUIRED. MOISTURE-LADEN NW FLOW REGIME WILL 

TODAY'S HIGHS IN CHECK.



FRI & FRI NGT:

CONTINUED AMPLIFICATION OF THE ADJACENT UPR-DECK RIDGE AXES (ONE OVER NE

U.S./ERN ONTARIO...THE 2ND FROM THE DESERT SW TO SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA) 

WILL FORCE THE STACKED...CUT-OFF LOW S/SE OVER THE KS/MO BORDER WITH THE

FEATURE POSSIBLY MOVING AS FAR S/SE AS AR LATE FRI NGT. AS SUCH CHANCES 

FOR -RA OR -RA/-SN MIXTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER ALL AREAS ON FRI

WITH PRECIP CHANCES DIMINISHING FRI NGT AS SWD-MOVING 700MB SHORTWAVE 

ROTATING AROUND THE LOW CROSSES THE KS/OK BORDER. MOIST NLY WRAP-AROUND 

WILL RESULT IN A NARROW DIURNAL TEMP RANGE BOTH PERIODS.



THIS WEEKEND:

DRY & GRADUALLY WARMER WEATHER SLATED FOR ALL AREAS AS THE PREVIOUSLY 

MENTIONED LOW PRESSURE AREA FINALLY CROSSES THE MID-MS VALLEY.



&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

WICHITA-KICT    47  34  44  36 /  20  40  50  20 

HUTCHINSON      46  33  44  35 /  30  40  50  20 

NEWTON          45  33  43  35 /  30  40  50  20 

ELDORADO        46  33  44  35 /  30  40  50  20 

WINFIELD-KWLD   49  35  45  36 /  20  30  40  20 

RUSSELL         42  32  44  33 /  30  40  50  20 

GREAT BEND      45  32  44  34 /  20  40  40  10 

SALINA          41  32  42  34 /  40  50  60  20 

MCPHERSON       44  32  43  34 /  30  50  50  20 

COFFEYVILLE     49  35  45  36 /  20  30  40  20 

CHANUTE         47  34  44  36 /  20  30  40  30 

IOLA            45  34  44  35 /  20  30  50  30 

PARSONS-KPPF    48  35  44  36 /  20  30  40  30 



&&



.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&



$$