FXUS63 KICT 181142 AFDICT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS 642 AM CDT THU MAR 18 2010 .AVIATION...12Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU VERY PATCHY AND SHALLOW IFR/LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL AFFECT KHUT EARLY THIS MORNING. MVFR VSBYS MAY AFFECT THE KICT-KCNU-KRSL SITES EARLY THIS MORNING AS WELL. OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL TODAY-TONIGHT. STOUT AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GET GOING BY EARLY AFTERNOON FOR ALL SITES EXCEPT KCNU...AS LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT...LIKELY REACHING KRSL-KSLN SITES BY 10-12Z...SWITCHING WINDS FROM SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY TO NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY. ADK && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CDT THU MAR 18 2010/ DISCUSSION... FORECAST CONCERNS FOR THIS PERIOD ARE THE STRONG WINDS FOR TODAY AS WELL AS THE PRECIP TYPE...AMOUNT...AND THE TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM ON FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SYNOPSIS: A DEEP LOW IS CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION WITH A POSITIVELY TILTING RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IT APPEARS ANOTHER LOW IS OFF THE COAST IN CALIFORNIA AND A HINTS OF A SHORTWAVE IS APPEARING IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. LASTLY ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE CANADIAN PROVINCE OF SASKATCHEWAN AND APPEARS NOT TO AFFECT THE AREA. TODAY: COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST KS DUE TO LIGHT WINDS UNDERNEATH HIGH PRESSURE...CLEAR SKIES AND GOOD LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. LOCALLY DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR MAINLY LOW-LYING AREAS. FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 9 AM. OTHERWISE...LOW CLOUDS SHOULD EXIT SOUTHEAST KS THIS MORNING...RESULTING IN A SUNNY...BREEZY AND WARMER DAY. STRENGTHENING WESTERN HIGH PLAINS LEE TROUGHING WILL RESULT IN GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...HIGHEST WEST OF I-135. ALTHOUGH THINK WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. WITH THE INCREASED MIXING AND WARMER 850MB TEMPERATURES...THINKING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE 60S ALL AREAS. ADK TONIGHT: AMPLIFYING POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE WILL EXIT THE AREA AS A DEEP TROUGH DIVES ACROSS THE PACIFIC WITH SEVERAL PV ANOMALIES. TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING WILL REMAIN WARMER THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...RANGING FROM 41-43 DEGREES. THIS IS DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY WINDS BRINGING IN WARM MOIST AIR FROM THE GULF. CLOUD COVER WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AS OUR NEXT WEATHER PRODUCER MOVES INTO THE AREA. FRIDAY - SATURDAY NIGHT: DIFFERENCE IN THE MODELS THIS PERIOD HAS CAUSED SOME SPECULATION ON THE WHERE AND WHEN THE SYSTEM WILL BOMB OUT. BOTH MODELS AGREE THAT A UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL DIVE ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. AS THIS TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ANOTHER RIDGE IS AMPLIFYING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. IT APPEARS FROM WHAT THE PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS DID TODAY...THE 00Z MODEL RUNS HAVE ROUTED BACK TOWARDS YESTERDAYS 00Z RUN...BEING MUCH COOLER AND DRIVING THE SYSTEM FARTHER SOUTH THEN THE 12Z RUNS. THE GFS IS MORE ROBUST WITH THIS SYSTEM...HAVING A DEEPER LOW AND BOMBING THE SYSTEM OUT OVER MO AROUND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF SLOWED THE SYSTEM DOWN MORE SO THEN YESTERDAY AND IS FARTHER SOUTH THEN ITS 12Z COUNTERPART. IT SEEMS THAT THE SYSTEM WILL BOMB OUT OVER OK AND LINGER OVER THE AREA TILL SUNDAY. WITH THE FLIP FLOPPING WITH BOTH OF THESE MODELS DECIDED TO CONTINUE TO TREND THINGS WITH THE MORE SOUTHERN ROOT SINCE IT APPEARS THAT THE 12Z RUNS WERE OUTLIERS. WITH THIS MORE SOUTHERN ROOT...EXPECT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO LESSEN MORE SINCE TEMPERATURES WILL BE A TAD COOLER AND THE BETTER INSTABILITY PARAMETERS WILL BE FARTHER SOUTH. DID LEAVE A MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER IN PARTS OF SC AND ALL OF SE KS. WITH THE SYSTEM NOT APPROACHING THERE UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT...EXPECT GOOD DAYTIME HEATING AND PERHAPS SOME INSTABILITY. THINKING IS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER ON SATURDAY WITH THIS SOUTHERN ROOT PLUS THE CAA WILL BE QUITE STRONG. WITH THIS IN MIND TOOK OUT ANY RAIN CHANCES ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KS ON SAT AND SUN AND ADDED SNOW. SOUTHEAST COULD STILL BE SOMEWHAT WARM...BUT WITH THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK AND HOW THE ECMWF COULD SLOW IT DOWN LEFT A CHANCE OR RAIN OR SNOW IN THE GRIDS ON SATURDAY. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL MODEL FLIP FLOPPING DURING THE 12Z RUNS TODAY AND SEE IF IT MOVES THE SYSTEM FARTHER NORTH. WITH THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM AND HOW IT CONTINUES TO SPIN UP AND STRENGTH BEFORE CYCLOGENESIS TAKES PLACE...WILL NEED TO WATCH THE WINDS IN CASE OF ADVISORY CRITERIA. SUNDAY-MONDAY NIGHT: AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...EXPECT ANOTHER RIDGE MOVE ACROSS THE AREA REBOUNDING TEMPERATURES BACK TO THE UPPER 50S AND 60S AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF ALLOWS FOR SOUTHERLY WINDS BRINGING IN WARM MOIST AIR. DUNTEN AVIATION...06Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU LOW CLOUDS ARE FINALLY STARTING TO SCOUR OUT...CLEARING ALL TERMINALS AT THIS TIME. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT...KEEPING WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE. TOWARDS THE MORNING HOURS...WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE SOUTH. THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE POTENTIAL FOR FOG TO DEVELOP TOWARDS THE MORNING HOURS. STILL FEEL THAT KCNU HAS THE BEST CHANCE AT DROPPING TO IFR WHILE REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT KICT AND KHUT WILL KEEP THEM IN VFR. OTHERWISE...AFTER FOG LIFTS VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH OUT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. BILLINGS && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WICHITA-KICT 64 42 63 30 / 0 0 30 80 HUTCHINSON 65 43 57 29 / 0 0 50 90 NEWTON 64 42 61 29 / 0 0 30 80 ELDORADO 63 42 64 30 / 0 0 20 80 WINFIELD-KWLD 64 42 65 30 / 0 0 20 80 RUSSELL 67 42 46 26 / 0 0 70 90 GREAT BEND 67 43 47 27 / 0 0 60 90 SALINA 65 42 51 27 / 0 0 60 90 MCPHERSON 64 42 54 28 / 0 0 50 90 COFFEYVILLE 64 41 69 32 / 0 0 10 90 CHANUTE 63 40 68 31 / 0 0 10 90 IOLA 63 40 68 31 / 0 0 10 90 PARSONS-KPPF 63 41 68 32 / 0 0 10 90 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$