FXUS63 KICT 010817 AFDICT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS 317 AM CDT SUN AUG 1 2010 .DISCUSSION... FORECAST CONCERNS...PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY AND HEAT INDEX VALUES NOW THROUGH NEXT WEEK. SYNOPSIS: UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE PLAINS WHILE A RIDGE IS SPREADING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SPINNING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND IS VERY SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD. TODAY AND TONIGHT: UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SET IN PLACE OVER THE PLAINS AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE AREA. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S AS WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE EAST TO THE SOUTHEAST...BRINGING IN WARMER AIR. DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUING AN ADVISORY SINCE H.I. VALUES ARE MARGINALLY HITTING ALONG THE OK BORDER. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THE SOUTHWEST WINDS IN EASTERN CO AND THE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS KS...SHOULD CREATE AN AREA OF CONVERGENCE. ALONG WITH THE CONVERGENT ZONE...CAPE VALUES WILL BE 2000 J/KG AND NO CAP...STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP. WITH LITTLE SHEAR THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. MONDAY - WEDNESDAY: UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DURING THIS PERIOD PUSHING THE RIDGE FARTHER NORTH. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER CANADA WILL FLATTEN OUT THE RIDGE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WHICH WILL ALLOW A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET TO SET IN PLACE. MODELS HAVE INDICATED THAT AN MCS WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS NEBRASKA LATE MONDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN KS ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD. IN THE WAKE BEHIND THE HIGH PRESSURE...WINDS WILL TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST BRINGING IN THE DRY AIR AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. AS MENTIONED IN PREV FORECASTS...TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES WILL BE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH H.I. VALUES RANGING FROM 106 TO 112 DEGREES. WILL NOT BE ISSUING A HEAT ADVISORY TONIGHT...MAIN CONCERN WOULD BE WHAT THE FORECASTED DEWPOINTS ARE AS THE PERIOD GETS CLOSER TO SEE IF AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING MAY BE NEEDED. ON TUESDAY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL STILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA SO TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AGAIN. H.I. VALUES WILL BE 101 TO 107 DEGREES WITH THE WARMER TEMPS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. CENTRAL KANSAS WILL HAVE A COLD FRONT SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTHWARD AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AS THE COLD FRONT INTERACTS WILL THE WARM MOIST AIRMASS...COULD SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. MAIN THREAT WILL BE GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. STORM CHANCES WILL SLOWLY INCREASE SOUTHWARD AS WELL. EXTENDED: VERY LITTLE CHANGES WITH THE PREV FORECAST. ECMWF SEEMS TO BE SLIGHTLY PROGRESSIVE IN MOVING THE FRONT INTO OK WHILE THE GFS DRAPES IT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. BECAUSE OF LOW CONFIDENCE CONTINUED TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. DUNTEN && .AVIATION...06Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU ALL 5 TERMINALS TO REMAIN IN VFR STATUS THROUGHOUT THE 01/06Z TAF CYCLE. PER "UPDATE" WILL KEEP ANY MENTION OF TSRA OUT OF THE KRSL TAF. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WICHITA-KICT 98 75 102 75 / 10 10 0 0 HUTCHINSON 96 74 103 76 / 10 10 0 0 NEWTON 95 74 101 76 / 10 10 0 0 ELDORADO 96 74 101 75 / 10 10 0 0 WINFIELD-KWLD 97 76 103 75 / 10 10 0 0 RUSSELL 97 73 103 75 / 20 20 10 10 GREAT BEND 97 73 104 76 / 20 20 10 10 SALINA 95 74 102 77 / 10 10 10 10 MCPHERSON 95 74 102 76 / 10 10 0 10 COFFEYVILLE 96 76 102 77 / 10 10 10 0 CHANUTE 93 74 100 76 / 10 10 10 0 IOLA 92 74 99 75 / 10 10 10 0 PARSONS-KPPF 94 75 101 77 / 10 10 10 0 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$