FXUS64 KHGX 181545

AFDHGX



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX

1045 AM CDT THU MAR 18 2010



.UPDATE...

MORNING UPDATE BELOW.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

12Z SOUNDINGS ADVERTISE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES THIS

AFTERNOON THAN YESTERDAY. 15Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A SURFACE

HIGH OVER SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WITH WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION ON

THE EAST SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM. THE HIGH WILL PUSH EAST THIS

AFTERNOON WITH WINDS DECREASING AND GRADUALLY BECOMING ONSHORE

THIS EVENING. SURFACE DEW POINTS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 30'S SO HAVE

TWEAKED RH GRIDS LOWER AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE RH VALUES

BELOW 25 PERCENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WILL TWEAK MAX TEMPS A FEW

DEGREES COOLER TO MATCH SOUNDING DATA. 12Z NAM SHOWS A GOOD SHOT

OF RAIN ON SATURDAY AND THIS MATCHES OTHER GLOBAL MODELS. WILL

PROBABLY RAISE POPS IN THE AFTERNOON UPDATE FOR SATURDAY. 43





&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 554 AM CDT THU MAR 18 2010/ 



MARINE...

N WINDS PICKING UP AROUND GALVESTON BAY BUT WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS 

DRY AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS. 

SEABREEZE SETS UP AS HIGH MOVES INTO THE COASTAL WATERS THIS 

AFTERNOON. DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE IN THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES 

WILL INCREASE WAA AND WINDS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY SHOULD STEADILY 

INCREASE. MAY BE AT SCEC IN THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT SOUTHWEST OF 

FREEPORT ALONG WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 6 FEET. WINDS RELAX AHEAD OF 

SATURDAY AFTERNOONS COLD FRONT THEN THE FRONT BLASTS OFF THE COAST 

DURING THE AFTERNOON AND WINDS QUICKLY RAMP UP TO SUSTAINED 20-25 

KNOTS AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY RELAXING 

SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER COLD FRONT EXPECTED AROUND WEDNESDAY.

45



PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT THU MAR 18 2010/ 



DISCUSSION...

ONLY A FEW MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION THIS

MORNING AS A SHORTWAVE OVER FAR EAST TEXAS REINFORCES DRY AIR

ACROSS THE REGION. AS THE SHORTWAVE EXITS TO THE EAST UPPER LEVEL

RIDGE WILL SET UP ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE BUMPED AFTERNOON HIGHS A

FEW DEGREES ABOVE MODEL GUIDANCE FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS RELATIVELY

LIGHT WINDS SHOULD COMBINE WITH THE DRY AIR TO WARM MOST OF THE

REGION INTO THE LOW 70S. RETURN FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN ON FRIDAY AS

SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AHEAD OF AN

APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.



MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN LOOSE AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF

SATURDAYS FRONTAL PASSAGE. ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE SLOWER AND DEEPER

WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WHILE THE GFS AND NAM ARE FASTER WITH THE

FRONT. HAVE LEANED CLOSER TO THE FASTER SOLUTION AND WITH THE

FRONT MOVING INTO OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES BY MID MORNING AND

APPROACHING THE HOUSTON METRO AREA BY MIDDAY SATURDAY. HAVE

BUMPED POPS UP TO LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE

AREA AS ALL MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT.



TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE RATHER CHILLY BEFORE RETURN FLOW

BRINGS A QUICK WARMUP ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

RAIN CHANCES RETURN BY WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM

APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. 38



&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      68  46  73  52  57 /   0   0  10  20  70 

HOUSTON (IAH)              70  47  74  56  65 /   0   0  10  20  70 

GALVESTON (GLS)            68  54  70  60  66 /   0   0  10  10  70 



&&



.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...NONE.

GM...NONE.

&&



$$



DISCUSSION...43