FXUS63 KGRR 010818

AFDGRR



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI

417 AM EDT SUN AUG 1 2010



LATEST UPDATE...ALL BUT AVIATION...



.SYNOPSIS...(417 AM EDT SUN AUG 1 2010)

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE OF 

MEASURABLE RAIN IS TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT. 

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S MONDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT 

BEFORE COOLING A BIT TO THE MID 80S... WHICH IS STILL ABOVE 

AVERAGE. 



&&



.SHORT TERM...(417 AM EDT SUN AUG 1 2010)

(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AND 

THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT. 



HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CONTINENT 

THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND PROVIDE WEATHER FREE DAYS FOR MICHIGAN 

TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO APPROACH 

THE AREA. LI/S FALL TO JUST BELOW ZERO LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO 

TUESDAY. MEANWHILE... THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE RELATIVELY DRY THROUGH 

MONDAY NIGHT SO DELAYED PRECIPITATION UNTIL OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT.

EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY WITH ONLY A SMALL 

CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.



&&



.LONG TERM...(417 AM EDT SUN AUG 1 2010)

(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)

HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS TUESDAY NIGHT AREA WIDE AS RELATIVELY 

WEAK/ILL DEFINED SFC FRONT SLIPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION. BEST 

CHANCES APPEAR TO EXIST IN SRN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA... CLOSER TO 

WHERE POSSIBLE NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET WILL SET UP. SEVERE WX CANNOT 

BE RULED OUT... BUT MAIN THREAT LOOKS TO BE IN WEST-EAST CORRIDOR 

FROM SRN IOWA TO NRN INDIANA ALONG THE H8 BAROCLINIC ZONE. 



MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN SHOWING THE MAIN H8 BAROCLINIC 

ZONE/SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY STAYING SITUATED SOUTH OF MI WEDNESDAY 

THROUGH SATURDAY. IT WILL STILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH HOWEVER TO WARRANT A 

LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS IN SRN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA WEDNESDAY. 

THIS MAY BE THE CASE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY TOO... BUT 

WILL LEAVE DRY FOR NOW. 



ALL THE REAL HOT/HUMID WEATHER WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE 

FRONTAL BOUNDARY... BUT IT WILL STILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL 

IN SW MI WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. PERIODIC MCS ACTIVITY RIDING 

EAST ALONG THE QUASI STATIONARY FRONT TO OUR SOUTH MAY BRING SOME 

THICKER CLOUDINESS AT TIMES.



&&



.AVIATION...(1150 PM EDT SAT JUL 31 2010)

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY. ONLY EXCEPTION 

COULD BE SOME MVFR VSBYS GIVEN ALL THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WITH 

SOME 3 TO 5SM BR BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z. WILL HAVE A TEMPO GROUP TO 

COVER THIS.  



&&



.MARINE...(417 AM EDT SUN AUG 1 2010)

NO MARINE HAZARDS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT THANKS TO HIGH 

PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS. 



&&



.HYDROLOGY...(417 AM EDT SUN AUG 1 2010)

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS TUESDAY AHEAD OF A 

COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. BASIN AVERAGE QPF 

LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH IS EXPECTED.



&&



.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI....NONE.

LM....NONE. 



&&



$$



SYNOPSIS:     63

SHORT TERM:   63

LONG TERM:    MEADE

AVIATION:     OSTUNO 

MARINE:       63

HYDROLOGY:    63