FXUS63 KGLD 120011 AFDGLD AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS 511 PM MST THU MAR 11 2010 .DISCUSSION... 300 MST THU MAR 11 2010 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING STRONG AND VERTICALLY STACKED LOW SPINNING OVER WEST CENTRAL IOWA ATTM WITH RIDGING OVER THE MOUNTAIN WEST. AN AREA OF PRECIP MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN OVER NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WITH LIGHT SNOW OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS CURRENTLY IS PROGRESSING SOUTHEASTWARD ON THE HEELS OF A SECONDARY AREA OF A CAA PUSH. THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST/SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE EVENING. SHORT TERM...IMMEDIATE FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND MEANDERING LOW IN THE OMAHA/KC AREA WHICH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN GENERALLY IN THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE FINALLY BEGINNING TO PULL SOUTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE CWA OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. QUESTIONS ARISE AS TO HOW FAR WEST THE CLOUD SHIELD AND PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE...WITH THE NAM FARTHEST WEST AND SLOWER WHILE THE GFS IS FARTHER EAST...ESPECIALLY WITH THE CLOUD COVER. OTHER DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IS MOSTLY SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN AND WITH THE UNCERTAINTIES INVOLVED, THIS SEEMS TO BE THE BEST APPROACH WITH THE FORECAST. WILL GENERALLY KEEP THE EASTERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE CWA UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH THE REMAINDER UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXCEPT OUR FAR WEST WHERE CONFIDENCE IS GREATER THAT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL PREVAIL. WILL ALSO CONTINUE SLIGHT POPS ALONG OUR EASTERN BORDER BASICALLY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE BIG ISSUE TOMORROW WILL BE THE STRONG GUSTY WINDS. A WIND ADV WILL AGAIN LIKELY BE NEEDED BUT QUESTIONS REGARDING COVERAGE OF ADV LEVEL WINDS. IN SUNNY AREAS, EXPECT WIND SPEEDS TO REACH ADV CRITERIA READILY WITH HIGHEST MIXING...BUT CLOUD COVER ACROSS EASTERN ZONES MAY INHIBIT STRONGEST POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS AND MAY KEEP THESE AREAS AT OR JUST UNDER ADV LEVEL..MUCH LIKE TODAY. WITH TODAYS ONGOING ADV, WILL DEFER TO EVENING OR OVERNIGHT SHIFT TO ISSUE ANY WIND HIGHLITES FOR TOMORROW. BY SATURDAY UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS WARMER TEMPS AND LESS WIND. IN THE EXTENDED...AT THE START OF THE PERIOD EXTENDED GUIDANCE IN BETTER AGREEMENT IN KEEPING MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACKING WELL SW OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH BOTH NAM AND EC PLACING THE H5 LOW CENTER NEAR THE SW NEW MEXICO ARIZONA AREA BY 12Z MON. HAVE KEPT CURRENT SUN/MON DRY FORECAST INTACT WITH SILENT POPS. BEYOND THIS, GENERAL RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST WITH THE AXIS TRANSVERSING THE FA WEDNESDAY WITH GUIDANCE HAVING LOW 60S AS HIGHS IN MANY AREAS. WILL GO WITH UPPER 50S FOR NOW AND TREND HI'S DOWN A FEW DEGREES FOR THU WITH THE AXIS MOVING TO THE EAST OF THE AREA. AT THE END OF THE PERIOD, DISCREPANCIES ARISE WITH THE SPEED AND AMPLITUDE OF NEXT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE NW CONUS. WILL GO WITH PERSISTENCE FOR NOW. 50 && .AVIATION... 511 PM MST THU MAR 11 2010 FOR 00Z TAFS...CLOUDS STARTING TO SCATTER OUT AT KGLD AND KMCK ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LARGE CLOUD SHIELD. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT BOTH SITES TONIGHT. WINDS WILL DECREASE SOME TONIGHT BUT THEN INTENSIFY AGAIN AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS FRIDAY MORNING DUE TO UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS. FS && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. NE...NONE. CO...NONE. && $$ WWWW