FXUS63 KFGF 121558 AFDFGF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND 958 AM CST FRI MAR 12 2010 .DISCUSSION...MAIN CHALLENGE FOR UPDATE CONCERNS PCPN COVERAGE/POPS. NEXT AREA OF RAIN ACROSS EASTERN MN ASSOCIATED WITH WAVE WRAPPING AROUND LOW BEGINNING TO SHOW UP ACROSS FAR SE FA FROM KMVX-88D. RUC AND 12Z OPERATIONAL MODELS ALL SHOWING MORE PERSISTENT QPF CLIPPING FAR SE FA IN ZONE OF LOWEST CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS AND ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM 290K SURFACE BEFORE WEAKENING THIS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS AREA CURRENT UNDER HIGHEST AFTERNOON POPS SO THIS LOOKS GOOD. ELSEWHERE ANY PCPN LOOKS MORE SPOTTY WITH ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS MINOR AS RADAR RETURNS SHOWING A WEAKENING TREND. SPOTTY BR CONTINUES AND WILL KEEP FOG MENTIONED. WILL LOOK OVER REMAINDER OF GRIDS BUT OVERALL NO BIG CHANCES PLANNED. && .AVIATION... MAINLY IFR CIGS TO CONTINUE OVER ALL BUT FAR NW FA TODAY. VSBYS WILL LIKELY BE IN AND OUT OF MVFR/IFR RANGES WITH FOG AS WELL. && .HYDROLOGY... MILDER TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH AROUND ONE INCH OF RAIN IN SOME AREAS HAS PROMPTED RIVER FLOOD WATCHES FOR PARTS OF THE S RED RIVER VALLEY. WATCHES HAVE BEEN POSTED FOR FARGO AND WAHPETON ON THE MAIN STEM RED...DILWORTH HAWLEY AND SABIN ON THE BUFFALO...AND ABERCROMBIE ON THE WILD RICE. THE PROJECTION FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS IS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING. FORECASTS WILL BE REFINED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND UPGRADES TO WARNINGS WILL BECOME POSSIBLE AS FORECAST CERTAINTY INCREASES. BASED ON REPORTS FROM OFFICIALS...RECENT RAINFALL AND ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES HAS RESULTED IN ENHANCED SNOWMELT WITH SOME SOME FLOODED ROADWAYS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. EXPECT TRENDS TO CONTINUE SO HAVE ISSUED AREAL FLOOD WARNINGS FOR RICHLAND...WILKIN...CASS...CLAY AND NORMAN COUNTIES. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...AREAL FLOOD WARNING FOR RICHLAND AND CASS COUNTIES. MN...AREAL FLOOD WARNING FOR WILKIN...CLAY AND NORMAN COUNTIES. && $$ VOELKER WWWW