FXUS63 KFGF 210805

AFDFGF



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND

305 AM CDT SUN MAR 21 2010



.DISCUSSION...



THE MAIN CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE TEMPS AND PRECIP CHANCES...AND

THERE ARE NO MAJOR STORMS ON THE HORIZON. MODELS ARE IN GOOD

AGREEMENT OVERALL...AND PREFER THE ECMWF WITH ITS DRIER SOLUTION

ON MON/TUE...AND THE GFS IS DRYING OUT SOME WITH THIS SYSTEM AS

MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED.



FOR TODAY...EXPECT A DRY DAY WITH TEMPS WARMING FROM YESTERDAYS

HIGHS. THERE WILL BE A FEW CLOUDS IN THE FAR NORTH...OTHERWISE

EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING.



FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING

INTO WESTERN ND BY 12Z MON. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH SOME

MIXING AND INCREASING CLOUDS.



FOR MON/TUE...THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR PRECIP BY

MONDAY AFTERNOON IN THE NORTH...SPREADING SOUTH AND EAST LATE

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS

SYSTEM...AND PWATS ONLY AROUND 0.5 INCHES...EXPECT PRECIP AMOUNTS

TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT WITH UP TO ONE TENTH OF AN INCH POSSIBLE.

PRECIP SHOULD START OUT AS ALL RAIN BEFORE COLDER AIR WORKS INTO

THE SYSTEM LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD CHANGE

PRECIP TO SNOW IN THE NORTH WITH MAINLY RAIN IN THE SOUTH. DRYING

AND SUBSIDENCE QUICKLY WORK IN BY TUE AFTERNOON SO EXPECT ANY

PRECIP TO END BY THIS TIME. TEMPS MAY ACTUALLY COOL DURING THE DAY

TUE WITH MODERATE COLD AIR ADVECTION AND WINDS BECOMING BRISK WITH

THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.



FOR WED...A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL SET UP JUST NORTH OF THE

CANADIAN BORDER...SO EXPECT ANOTHER DAY WITH TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL.



ON WED NIGHT/THU...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA.

THIS SHOULD USHER IN MUCH COLDER AIR AND TEMPS WILL PLUMMET BELOW

NORMAL BY THU. HIGH TEMPS ON THU WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH FREEZING

IN MOST AREAS. THERE COULD BE SOME FLURRIES WITH THIS FRONTAL

PASSAGE...BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAVE OUT. THE ECMWF DOES INDICATE MORE

OF A POTENTIAL FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS...SO WILL CONTINUE TO

MONITOR.



COOL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY WITH SOME WARM ADVECTION ALOFT

BY FRI NIGHT. THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM

BUT NOT WORTH A MENTION AT THIS TIME.



&&



.AVIATION...



ALTHOUGH VFR SHOULD PREVAIL THIS PERIOD...AN APPROACHING SFC BDRY 

WILL PRODUCE INCREASING WINDS JUST ABOVE SFC EARLY THIS MORNING.  

LLWS CRITERIA MAY BE MET THRU 12Z AT KDVL/KGFK/KFAR SO WILL NEED TO 

MONITOR. OTHERWISE...A BATCH OF MID LVL CLOUDS WILL SLIDE ACROSS 

NORTHERN TERMINALS THRU EARLY MORNING AND PERHAPS ANOTHER AREA OF 

HIGH CLOUDS MAY PUSH ACROSS THE REGION LATER SUNDAY.



&&



.HYDROLOGY...



MODERATE TO MAJOR FLOODING CONTINUES ON THE RED RIVER FROM WAHPETON 

TO OSLO. THE TRIBUTARIES ON THE MN SIDE OF THE RIVER HAVE CRESTED 

AND ARE FALLING...SAVE FOR THE SAND HILL RIVER AT CLIMAX AND THE 

WILD RICE RIVER AT HENDRUM. THOSE TWO LOCATIONS WILL EXPERIENCE A 

PROTRACTED CREST DUE TO BACKWATER EFFECTS FROM THE RED RIVER. THE 

SAME EFFECTS WILL BE FELT ON THE SHEYENNE RIVER AT HARWOOD AND AT THE

WEST FARGO DIVERSION.



NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO ANY FORECASTS TONIGHT. THE RED 

RIVER AT FARGO AND MOORHEAD IS NEAR CREST...BUT DOES CONTINUE TO 

RISE EVER SO SLOWLY AND IS THUS STILL ON TRACK TO HAVE A PEAK STAGE 

NEAR 37.0 FEET TODAY. THE BROAD CREST WAVE WILL CONTINUE MAKING

ITS WAY NORTH...ALSO PASSING HALSTAD SUNDAY...AND REACHING GRAND

FORKS MONDAY...OSLO BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...DRAYTON THURSDAY

INTO FRIDAY...AND PEMBINA BY THE END OF MARCH. ICE IN THE MAIN

CHANNEL WILL CONTINUE RESTRICTING FLOW FROM OSLO NORTH TO THE

CANADIAN BORDER.



TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE 40S TODAY AND

MONDAY...BEFORE COOLING ON TUE. THIS WILL CAUSE SOME RENEWED

SNOWMELT RUNOFF IN THE UPPER REACHES OF THE SHEYENNE RIVER...ESPECIALLY

AROUND LISBON...WHERE RIVER MODEL SIMULATIONS SUGGEST RIVER RISES

BY MIDWEEK. THERE IS ALSO THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS

THE ENTIRE RED RIVER VALLEY MONDAY INTO TUE...ALTHOUGH

PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF UP TO ONE TENTH OF AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE.

THIS WILL HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT ON CURRENT RIVER FORECASTS.



ALSO OF NOTE IS THAT MODEL SIMULATIONS SUGGEST PEAK RUNOFF FLOW ON 

THE TURTLE RIVER IN NORTHEASTERN ND IS OCCURRING NOW...SO LEVELS

WILL THEN HOLD STEADY OR BEGIN A SLOW DECREASE TODAY.



&&



ND...AREAL FLOOD WARNING FOR RICHLAND...RANSOM...SARGENT...CASS...

BARNES...TRAIL...STEELE...GRIGGS...GRAND FORKS...EASTERN WALSH...

AND PEMBINA COUNTIES.



MN...AREAL FLOOD WARNING FOR KITTSON...WESTERN MARSHALL...WESTERN

POLK...NORMAN...CLAY AND WILKIN COUNTIES.



&&



$$

DK/DLH