FXUS62 KFFC 150737 AFDFFC AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 337 AM EDT MON MAR 15 2010 .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE INFAMOUS UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS MORNING. MODELS AGREE ON MEANDERING THE LOW OUT TO SEA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SUBTLE VORT MAX'S ROTATING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW CONTINUE TO PRODUCE CLOUDS AND SPITS OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GA THIS MORNING...SO WILL BEGIN THE FIRST PERIOD WITH THIS WORDING. A STRONG VORT MAX NOTED OVER KY THIS MORNING SHOULD TRAVERSE NORTH-NE GA TODAY. THIS SHOULD HELP HOLD CLOUDS AND MAYBE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN THERE TODAY. MODELS ARE TRYING TO SCATTER MOST OF CENTRAL GA OUT THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WOULD EXPLAIN WHY MET AND MAV HIGHS ARE GOING SO WARM TODAY. 85H ANALYSIS SHOWS A POCKET OF COLD AIR OVER THE OH AND TN VALLEY'S THAT SHOULD ADVECT OVER THE STATE TODAY. THE COOL NW FLOW...LINGERING CLOUDS AND THE APPROACHING VORT MAX ALL SUGGEST GOING A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY. PLAN TO DANCE BETWEEN PERSISTENCE AND THE COOLER MAV HIGHS FOR TODAY. CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE MAY LINGER TONIGHT ACROSS NORTH- NE GA...BUT MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD SCATTER OUT. THIS COUPLED WITH A COOL NORTHERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL LOWS ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT. AN UPPER SHORT WAVE KICKING OUT OF TEXAS ON TUESDAY WILL BE SHUNTED SOUTH OF THE STATE BY ANOTHER SHORT WAVE DIVING DOWN FROM THE NORTH. THE DISTURBANCE FROM THE NORTH SEEMS TO BE MOISTURE STARVED...SO EXPECTING ONLY SOME MID CLOUDS SPREADING IN FROM THE NORTH LATE TUESDAY- TUESDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL WARM-UP TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPS BY MID WEEK WITH NO POPS FOR TUE-WED. .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... PREFER THE GFS THIS RUN WITH REGARDS TO A COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE STATE ON SUNDAY. ECMWF IS A BIT FASTER THAN THE GFS AND APPEARS A BIT UNREALISTIC BY DEVELOPING A SURFACE LOW RIGHT OVER THE STATE SATURDAY NIGHT-EARLY SUNDAY...WHILE THE GFS DEVELOPS THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE OH VALLEY AND DRAGS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE STATE EARLY ON SUNDAY. THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN JUST LOOKS A BIT MORE REALISTIC. EXPECTING NO THUNDER AT THIS TIME CONSIDERING TIMING OF THE FRONT IN THE MORNING WITH NIL CAPES AND POSITIVE LI'S IN PLACE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... ATHENS 58 37 63 43 60 / 10 0 5 10 20 ATLANTA 55 38 58 43 57 / 20 0 5 10 20 BLAIRSVILLE 50 37 54 43 53 / 20 5 10 20 20 CARTERSVILLE 54 37 57 43 57 / 20 0 5 10 20 COLUMBUS 60 40 64 44 60 / 10 0 5 10 20 GAINESVILLE 53 39 56 44 55 / 20 0 5 10 20 MACON 62 38 65 43 61 / 10 0 5 10 20 ROME 55 39 58 42 58 / 20 0 5 20 20 PEACHTREE CITY 56 34 60 40 56 / 20 0 5 10 20 VIDALIA 64 42 66 45 63 / 5 0 5 10 20 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 39