FXUS64 KEPZ 312033 AFDEPZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM 233 PM MDT SAT JUL 31 2010 .SYNOPSIS... ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL THAT MAY RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR TOMORROW...MAINLY WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE. INCREASING HIGH PRESSURE AND LESS ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL REDUCE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO ISOLATED FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK. DAY TIME TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO ABOVE AVERAGE DURING THE WEEK. && .DISCUSSION... VERY ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM PATTERN IS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING TRIGGERED BY A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT REMAINS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH TONIGHT. THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY MOIST WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AT 170 PERCENT OF NORMAL OR HIGHER. THIS WILL RESULT IN STORMS THAT ARE VERY CAPABLE PRODUCING A LOT OF RAIN IN A VERY SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. EXCESS RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINS WILL SET UP A FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL FROM SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST OVER WESTERN ZONES THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT WHILE SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR EASTERN ZONES. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT FOR ZONES MAINLY WEST OF RIVER. ON MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIFT OUT OF THE AREA AND THE HIGH OVER THE GULF COAST STATES WILL EXTEND WESTWARD OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL HAVE A STABILIZING AFFECT ON THE ON THE REGION. ADDITIONALLY...MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL DIMINISH. THIS WILL REDUCE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE ISOLATED CATEGORY. A MORE SUMMERTIME DIURNAL PATTERN OF ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH A DIMINISHED FLOODING THREAT. A FEW STORMS MAY STILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THAT COULD PRODUCE MINOR FLOODING BUT OVERALL OCCURRENCE SHOULD BE LESS FREQUENT. WITH THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AND REDUCED MOISTURE...DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK UP INTO THE UPPER 90S ACROSS THE DESERT FLOOR FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION...VALID 01/00Z-02/00Z SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD TSRA CAN BE EXPECTED OVER MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH 04Z AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NORTH THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL NM. BASIC SKY CONDITIONS AGL: SCT-BKN040-060 100-140 AND BKN TO OVC 200-250. SCT MVFR/IFR CONDS IN TSRA WITH CONDS NR STORMS: VRB25G35KT 3SM +TSRAGS BKN020CB OVC060. ANOTHER ROUND OF TSRA MAINLY WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE AFTER 18Z WITH SIMILAR CONDS NEAR STORMS EXPECTED. .FIRE WEATHER... SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FIRE DISTRICT WITH ANOTHER ROUND EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH THE GREATER CHANCES BEING WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE. HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING ARE THE MAIN THREATS WITH THESE STORMS AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE. DRIER AIR WILL START TO FILTER INTO THE REGION FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK...BUT THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE FOR DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S FOR THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK WITH A SLOW INCREASE GOING TOWARD THE WEEKEND. && JMG && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... EL PASO 70 93 71 96 72 / 40 20 20 20 20 SIERRA BLANCA TX 64 92 63 93 66 / 30 20 10 10 10 LAS CRUCES 68 93 68 95 70 / 40 20 20 20 20 ALAMOGORDO 65 91 63 93 65 / 40 30 20 20 20 CLOUDCROFT 50 71 48 72 50 / 40 30 20 20 20 TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 64 90 64 92 66 / 50 30 30 20 20 SILVER CITY 58 81 56 84 58 / 60 50 40 30 30 DEMING 65 92 65 94 67 / 50 40 30 20 20 LORDSBURG 64 90 63 94 65 / 60 50 40 30 30 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR NMZ022-023-030>032. FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR NMZ024-025. TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR TXZ055-056. && $$ 04/26