FXUS63 KDVN 150831

AFDDVN



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL

331 AM CDT MON MAR 15 2010



.SYNOPSIS...

CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE CWA WITH DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN

THE LOW LEVELS FROM THE NORTHEAST. WIDESPREAD STRATUS AND FOG

REMAINS TO THE WEST OF OUR CWA...WHILE ONLY SPOTTY AVIATION FOG IS

APPARENT ON THE 8Z OBS. OUR NEXT POTENTIAL WEATHER MAKER IS A

SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPARENT IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER

SASKATCHEWAN...BUT IT IS ASSOCIATED WITH LITTLE CLOUDS AND NO

WEATHER AT THIS TIME.



&&



.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AS THE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE LOW CONTINUE TO MOVE

EAST...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA DURING THE NEXT 24

HOURS. MODELS AGREE IN A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE TODAY WHICH

SHOULD ALLOW SOME LOCATIONS TO HIT THE 60 DEGREE MARK AS OCCURRED

YESTERDAY. NIGH TIME MINS WILL CONTINUE ON THE MILD SIDE AS MID-

HIGH CLOUDS BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT. WENT AT OR

ABOVE GUIDANCE TEMPS.   WOLF





.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

FORECAST FOCUS ON ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE 

WORK WEEK THEN MUCH COLDER THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND. BY THE WAY...RAIN 

AND SNOW POTENTIAL IN THE TRANSITION PERIOD.



TROUGH/WEAK UPPER LOW DROPS OUT OF CANADA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT

BUT WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR 

LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES. ECM/GFS/GEM PAINT SOME LIGHT QPF 

WEST OF THE DVN CWA WITH THE UKMET THE ONLY ONE SHOWING THIS IN THE 

DVN CWA. THE NAM ON THE OTHER HAND IS COMPLETELY DRY. EITHER WAY NOT 

MUCH TO GET EXCITED ABOUT WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE TROUGH DOES MAINTAIN 

THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND SOME CLOUDS SO MAX TEMPS TO BE MAINLY 

IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60.



HOWEVER THE EXCITEMENT BEGINS TO BUILD FOR LATER IN THE WEEK. 

ECM/GFS/GEM ALL SIMILAR IN TURNING THE UPPER FLOW TO MORE ZONAL AND 

THEN SOUTHWEST...AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH THAT DIVES INTO THE UPPER 

MIDWEST AND DEEPENS. THURSDAY APPEARS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY THIS 

WEEK WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND A DRY SOUTHWEST SURFACE WIND. MAX 

TEMPS SHOULD SOAR INTO THE MID 60S IN MANY LOCATIONS. CONSIDERING 

SOME SITES SHOT UP TO 60 YESTERDAY WITH A NORTH WIND AND COOLER 850 

MB TEMPS...RAISING TEMPS ON THURSDAY SEEMS JUSTIFIED. AT LEAST 

MODIFIED GULF AIR WILL BE TRANSPORTED INTO THE REGION ON SOUTHWEST 

TO SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF STRONG COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY. WILL HAVE 

CHANCE POPS FOR FRIDAY BUT WILL PROBABLY NEED TO BE RAISED MUCH 

FURTHER AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT. MAX TEMPS SHOULD NOT BE AS 

WARM DUE TO MORE CLOUD COVER AND INCREASING RAIN.



THE ECM IS PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM MOVING THE FRONT THROUGH 

ALREADY BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...ENDING THE PRECIPITATION. 

HOWEVER THE GFS WANTS TO TRY TO PHASE THE SYSTEM AND DEEPEN A 

SURFACE LOW ON SATURDAY WHICH DEVELOPS A BAND OF HEAVIER 

ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DVN CWA. THIS SOLUTION IS 

MUCH MORE OMINOUS COMPARED TO THE ECM. BUT EVEN THE ECM WOULD 

SUGGEST RAIN MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO SNOW BUT THE WINTRY PRECIP 

WOULD BE BRIEF. HOPEFULLY THIS DISCREPANCY WILL BE RESOLVED OVER THE 

NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.



LATER THIS WEEKEND...MUCH COLDER AIR ARRIVES AS STRONG CLIPPER DROPS 

OUT OF CANADA AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES. MODELS PLUNGE 850 MB TEMPS 

TO -14C OVER PORTIONS OF THE CWA WITH THE ECM SOMEWHAT FASTER IN 

BRINGING THIS ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS BLAST OF COLD AIR 

LOOKS TO BE BRIEF THOUGH AS WE GET INTO THE TYPICAL MID TO LATE 

MARCH ROLLER COASTER RIDE PATTERN.    



..HAASE..



&&



.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AFTER MVFR FOG

BURNS OFF AT CID THIS MORNING. ONLY CONCERN IS THAT LIFR STRATUS

OVER CENTRAL IOWA REMAINS TO THE WEST OF OUR TAF SITES. LOW LEVEL

FLOW BASED ON BLUE RIVER WI PROFILER AND KDVN VWP SUGGESTS THIS

WILL BE THE CASE. OTHERWISE CLOUDS WILL BE LIMITED TO DIURNAL CU

TODAY THEN MID-HIGH CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT.



WOLF



&&



.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

IA...NONE.

IL...NONE.

MO...NONE.

&&



$$



WOLF/HAASE