FXUS61 KCTP 181532

AFDCTP



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA

1132 AM EDT THU MAR 18 2010



.SYNOPSIS...

UNSEASONABLY MILD AND TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE

FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE

ANTICIPATED FROM LATE IN THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A

SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN

PLAINS TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC.



&&



.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TODAY TO

REBOUND QUICKLY FORM CHILLY MORNING LOWS...WITH MAX TEMPS ENDING

NEAR OR UP A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY IN MOST PLACES.

ENS MEAN 850 TEMPS ARND 4C ARE VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...SO WILL

ONCE AGAIN FCST HIGHS FROM THE U50S OVR THE HIGHEST TERRAIN OF THE

ALLEGHENIES...TO THE U60S OVER PORTIONS OF THE SUSQ VALLEY. WEAK

SHORTWAVE WORKING ACROSS THE GRT LKS IS LIKELY TO INTRODUCE A BIT

OF CIRRUS TO OUR SKIES TODAY...MAINLY IN THE NORTH.



WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL PASS THRU THE STATE TONIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY NO 

MORE THAN SCT CIRRUS. VIRTUALLY NO CHC OF PRECIP WITH THIS 

FEATURE...AS AIR MASS PROGGED TO REMAIN QUITE DRY. THE PATCHY HI 

CLOUDS...COMBINED WITH A SUBTLE INCREASE IN LOW LVL 

MOISTURE...SHOULD KEEP TEMPS A BIT MILDER THAN RECENT NIGHTS WITH 

ALL BUT THE COLDEST NORTHERN VALLEYS REMAINING ABV FREEZING.



&&



.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

RETURN SW FLOW AROUND HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATING OFF THE SOUTHEAST

COAST WILL CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH/WEST SATURDAY

NIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE.



&&



.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ALL 00Z/18 NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOW TRENDING TOWARD A SPLIT

FLOW PATTERN AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...RESULTING IN A

SLOW MOVING SOUTHERN STREAM CUT-OFF LOW EVOLVING EAST-NORTHEAST

ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. FORECAST IMPLICATIONS OF

THIS SLOWER AND MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK...WHICH WAS HIGHLIGHTED IN

YESTERDAYS 12Z PACKAGE...WILL LIKELY INCLUDE A 12HR DELAY IN THE

ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION AND A MUCH WEAKER SURGE OF COLDER AIR IN

THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM. THE ECMWF REMAINS THE TREND-SETTING

SOLUTION...CONTINUING TO REFLECT THE MOST PRONOUNCED CORRECTION

AMONGST THE OTHER MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES. THEREFORE

HAVE WEIGHTED THE LONG TERM FORECAST HEAVILY TOWARD THE ECMWF TO

CAPTURE/INTEGRATE THE PREVAILING SIGNALS AND NOT DAMPEN THE

MESSAGE.



&&



.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

A RIDGE OF HI PRES EXTENDING FROM THE MIDWEST TO PENNSYLVANIA WILL

RESULT IN GOOD FLYING CONDS THRU THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND

WITH MCLEAR SKIES AND RELATIVELY LGT WINDS. 



OUTLOOK... 

FRI-SAT...VFR. 

SUN...IFR WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

MON...IFR WITH SHRASN POSSIBLE...ESP W MTNS.



&&



.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.



&&



$$

SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL

NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/GARTNER

SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL

LONG TERM...STEINBUGL

AVIATION...FITZGERALD