FXUS64 KCRP 192034 AFDCRP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 334 PM CDT FRI MAR 19 2010 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW OUT AHEAD OF A LATE-SEASON COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING. WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT WILL BE CONTINUED UNTIL 8 PM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND...AND INLAND AS FAR AS KALI. WINDS ELSEWHERE WILL BE ELEVATED...JUST NOT TO ADVISORY CRITERIA. SURFACE FLOW WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE RETURN LEADS TO SKIES CLOUDING OVER LATE TONIGHT. FOCUS THEN TURNS TO COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ITSELF. FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND BRUSH COUNTRY SATURDAY MORNING...PROGRESSIVE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY AND CLEARING THE CWFA BY MID- AFTERNOON. IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS WILL BE OFFSET BY MEDIOCRE MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS THE WEST...BUT BETTER INFLOW OVER THE EAST WILL LEAD TO BETTER COVERAGE OF MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION. THOSE SAME DYNAMICS AND SLIGHT INSTABILITY MEANS THUNDER IS ALSO POSSIBLE OVER THE EAST...ALTHOUGH NOT ENOUGH FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THREAT. WINDS WILL AGAIN PICK UP BEHIND THE FRONT AS DRY ARCTIC AIR PUSHES INTO THE REGION. THIS SHOULD SHUT OFF PRECIPITATION RELATIVELY QUICKLY AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT MAY AGAIN REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. VERY DRY AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL CREATE AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER OUT WEST WHERE SKIES WILL CLEAR RELATIVELY EARLY IN THE DAY...AND WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THOSE AREAS REMAINS WARRANTED. LOCAL LOW LEVEL WINDS SET UP FAVORABLY FOR COOLING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...AND LOWS SUNDAY MORNING WILL FALL INTO THE 30S IN MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND AS A RESULT. && .LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...MAIN FORECAST ISSUES ARE THE TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE PERIOD...THEN THE CHANCES FOR RAIN AROUND MID WEEK. PRETTY MUCH STATUS-QUO FROM WHAT HAS BEEN FORECAST FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH ONLY EXCEPTION BEING A SLOWLY MOVING SURFACE HIGH ON MONDAY...MEANING COOLER THAN EXPECTED TEMPERATURES AND LESS TIME FOR RETURN FLOW TO COME BACK IN TIME FOR THE NEXT UPPER SYSTEM STILL FORECAST TO MOVE MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA. THUS...BASIC CHANGES TO PREVIOUS THINKING (GENERALLY MINOR ONES) HAVE BEEN TO LOWER TEMPERATURES A BIT SUNDAY MORNING...A BIT MORE MONDAY MORNING...AND INCREASE WINDS FOR SUNDAY. FOR THE RAIN CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY...WENT NO MORE THAN LOW CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY WITH THE LOWER MOISTURE PROFILES. HOWEVER... MOISTURE DOES HANG AROUND FOR THURSDAY WITH PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND WITH ENOUGH INSTABILITY...SEA BREEZE AND DAYTIME HEATING...DID KEEP POPS IN (AGAIN NO MORE THAN LOW END CHANCE) FOR THURSDAY. ECMWF IS FASTER WITH FRONT THAN GFS...BUT WENT MORE TOWARD THE GFS THIS TIME WITH SLOW UPPER TROUGH. WITH TIMING OF FRONT SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT... ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES ACCORDINGLY AND GENERALLY DUE TO THESE TIMING ISSUES DIE NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM GUIDANCE AFTER TUESDAY. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CORPUS CHRISTI 59 68 37 69 36 / 10 50 10 0 0 VICTORIA 55 63 32 63 33 / 10 70 10 0 0 LAREDO 61 71 39 74 41 / 10 10 0 0 0 ALICE 55 67 37 71 36 / 10 50 0 0 0 ROCKPORT 60 67 41 66 42 / 10 50 10 0 0 COTULLA 54 62 33 71 35 / 20 40 0 0 0 KINGSVILLE 58 68 37 73 35 / 10 40 0 0 0 NAVY CORPUS 60 67 41 67 42 / 10 50 10 0 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: JIM WELLS...KLEBERG...NUECES...SAN PATRICIO. FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: DUVAL...JIM WELLS...LA SALLE...LIVE OAK...MCMULLEN...WEBB. GM...GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS... BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O'CONNOR... COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM... COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM SATURDAY TO 10 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS...BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O'CONNOR...COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM. && $$ JV/71...SHORT TERM GW/86...LONG TERM