FXUS64 KCRP 010452 AAC AFDCRP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 1152 PM CDT SAT JUL 31 2010 .DISCUSSION...SEE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION. && .AVIATION...MAIN ISSUE IS WHETHER THE FOG WILL RETURN OVER THE EASTERN TERMINALS. EVENING SOUNDING WAS SHOWING DRIER AIRMASS WITH DRIER AIR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THINKING IS THAT FOG WILL FORM TOWARD MORNING AND WILL GENERALLY BE AS BAD AS THIS MORNING IN KALI (BASED ON NORMAL CLIMATOLOGY AND CURRENT DEW POINTS) BUT NOT SO AT KCRP. ALSO...EXPECT LESS IN PERSISTENT CIGS AOB 1000 FT AS BOUNDARY LAYER IS A BIT DRIER (I.E...THINK IT WILL MAINLY BE FOG). THUS...EXPECT MVFR BR IN KCRP AND KVCT AROUND 10Z LASTING TIL 14Z BUT VLIFR AT KALI DUE TO VSBY MAINLY. WILL ALSO FORECAST TEMPO IFR/LIFR CONDS AT KLRD BETWEEN 10Z AND 14Z. OTHERWISE...WINDS AGAIN BECOME LIGHT THEN SOUTHWEST IN THE MORNING THEN SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING TO ALL AREAS BY 15Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD...02/06Z. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 911 PM CDT SAT JUL 31 2010/ DISCUSSION...LOWERED TEMPERATURES IN A FEW LOCATIONS (BASED ON THE LOW TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING) AND ADJUSTED MOISTURE/CLOUD GRIDS JUST SLIGHTLY. EVENING SOUNDING IS SHOWING A DRIER AIRMASS ESPECIALLY IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. WITH LIGHT LAND BREEZE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO FALL READILY AGAIN WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LAND WIND. LOW AT KRKP GOT TO 73 THIS MORNING AND A FEW LOCATIONS UP TO THE NORTH MAY SEE TEMPS NEAR 70 IF NOT THE UPPER 60S. FOG AGAIN A POSSIBILITY AND HAVE MAINTAINED THE WORD PATCHY (MORE AREAL YESTERDAY FOR A TIME)...AS WITH DRIER AIRMASS MAY SEE A MORE PATCHY NATURE AND PERHAPS CLOUD COVER NOT AS PROMINENT EITHER (STILL KEPT MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER THE SOUTHERN INLAND AREAS BETWEEN HIGHWAY 77 AND 281). OTHERWISE...NOT MUCH ELSE GOING ON SO NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME. NO CHANGES PLANNED TO THE MARINE FORECAST. PUBLIC PRODUCTS ARE OUT. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 623 PM CDT SAT JUL 31 2010/ DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION. AVIATION...RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW LOW IFR STRATUS OR IFR/LIFR FOG TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AT THE TAF SITES. STRATUS AND FOG WILL ERODE BY 15Z AND THEN DRY AIR AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 212 PM CDT SAT JUL 31 2010/ SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER HIGH SFC MOISTURE FROM RECENT RAINS COMBINED WITH DRY AIR ALOFT AND LIGHT WINDS WILL RESULT IN PATCHY FOG OVER THE INLAND COASTAL PLAINS TONIGHT. H85-H50 STREAMLINE ANALYSIS INDICATES THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY SUNDAY AFTN-NIGHT RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE COASTAL BEND FROM THE NW GULF. LATEST WV/GOES SOUNDER IMAGERY SHOWS THIS DEEPER MOISTURE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF ATTM. HOWEVER SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE WILL BE TOO STRONG TO ALLOW PCPN. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AS A WEAK SFC RIDGE REMAINS PARKED OVER LOUISIANA...RESULTING IN SEAS 1-2FT. LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO PROG THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO SHIFT NORTHEAST AND BECOME CENTERED OVER ARKANSAS BY MONDAY. THE 12Z GFS IS COMING BACK IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION OF KEEPING THE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS THOUGH THE PERIOD...THEREFORE INCREASING CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT TO THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN NEXT WEEK. THIS SET-UP WILL GENERATE A DEEP GULF TAP OVER SOUTH TEXAS WITH MOISTURE PROGGED TO INCREASE OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS ARE STILL PROGGED TO BE TOO WARM FOR DEEP CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. STILL THINK SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL EXIST TO GENERATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LOW-TOPPED DIURNAL CONVECTION. THE LATEST ECMWF/GFS PROG A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH TO MOVE ACROSS THE GULF DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE LATEST ECMWF PROGS THIS FEATURE TO ENTER SOUTH TEXAS SATURDAY WHEREAS THE LATEST GFS IS 24 HOURS FASTER (FRI) WITH THIS MID/UPPER TROUGH. GIVEN THE TIMING UNCERTAINTY...BROAD BRUSHED INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS FOR COASTAL AREAS FOR BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE HOT...WITH MAXIMUM AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES RANGING FROM 105-109 DEGREES. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CORPUS CHRISTI 72 96 75 94 76 / 0 10 10 10 10 VICTORIA 73 96 74 97 77 / 0 10 10 10 10 LAREDO 76 101 77 102 79 / 0 0 10 0 0 ALICE 71 96 74 96 75 / 0 10 10 10 0 ROCKPORT 75 93 79 93 81 / 0 10 10 10 10 COTULLA 71 98 72 100 75 / 0 0 10 0 0 KINGSVILLE 72 98 75 98 77 / 0 10 10 10 10 NAVY CORPUS 76 91 79 91 80 / 0 10 10 10 10 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ GW/86...AVIATION