FXUS61 KCLE 120448 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 1148 PM EST THU MAR 11 2010 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... BAND OF SHRA OVER THE WEST HALF OF CWA CONTINUES TO GET STRETCHED WITH SHRA BECOMING LESS NUMEROUS AS ENERGY DRIVING THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. THINK MOST OF THE CURRENT SHRA WILL CONTINUE TO LESSEN BUT PROBABLY WILL NOT TOTALLY NOT DISAPPEAR. WILL LOWER POPS FOR SECOND HALF OF TONIGHT DUE TO CURRENT TRENDS AND LACK OF FORCING LATE TONIGHT. LAKE BREEZE NUDGED INLAND A BIT BEFORE SUNSET AND STALLED LEAVING A SHARP TEMP BOUNDARY ALONG THE FIRST MILE OR SO OF THE LAKESHORE. WEAK TROUGH LIFTING N ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT SHOULD HELP TO KICK THE FLOW ALONG THE LAKESHORE BACK TO A MORE EAST OR SE DIRECTION WHICH SHOULD MEAN TEMPS ALONG LAKESHORE WILL PROBABLY RISE. TRIED TO DEPICT THIS IN EARLIER UPDATE AND WILL KEEP SAME TREND GOING. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... THE WAVE THAT WILL AFFECT THE REGION TONIGHT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH MUCH OF THE AREA REMAINING RAIN FREE THROUGH THE DAY. WITH SOME SUNSHINE EXPECTED THE REGION WILL SEE ANOTHER WARM DAY. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD BE ON THE STRONG SIDE BUT THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAINFALL THAT THEY COULD PRODUCE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN SWEEP FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY. SINCE SOILS ARE ALREADY SATURATED BY THE SNOWMELT ANY RAINFALL WILL BECOME RUNOFF. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME FLOODING PROBLEMS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MOST OF THE AREA WILL ONLY SEE NUISANCE PROBLEMS WITH FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREA. HOWEVER LOCATIONS ACROSS NE OH AND NW PA THAT STILL HAVE ADDITIONAL SNOWPACK TO MELT COULD SEE SOME FLOODING PROBLEMS. FRENCH CREEK IN MEADVILLE WILL LIKELY SEE MODERATE FLOODING WITH A CHANCE AT SEEING SOME MAJOR FLOODING. THE GRAND RIVER IN PAINESVILLE MAY ALSO CAUSE PROBLEMS WITH MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL KEEP SHOWERS OVER THE AREA INTO SUNDAY BUT MUCH OF IT WILL SHIFT TO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION AS THE LOW SLIDES EASTWARD. AS THE FLOW SURFACE WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST WE WILL SEE TEMPERATURES COOL FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES AT MOST LOCATIONS. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... LITTLE CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO BUILD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH CONTINUES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL OR A LITTLE ABOVE FOR PERIOD. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING. SOME CLEARING ROTATING N NORTHWARD AT THE MOMENT BUT WITH A DECENT LOW LEVEL JET AND THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE BECOMING MORE MOIST AND COOLING EXPECT PATCHY STRATUS AND FOG TO DEVELOP FRIDAY MORNING... ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL OHIO. SHOULD SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT ON FRIDAY AS DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE. RAIN WITH THE NEXT WAVE WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. .OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD NON-VFR CEILINGS/VSBY WITH SHOWERS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND PERHAPS INTO MONDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN TUESDAY. && .MARINE... LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY TRACK SOUTH OF THE LAKE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THROUGH FRIDAY WINDS WILL PRIMARILY FROM AN EASTERLY DIRECTION. THEY WILL TREND NORTHEASTERLY FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW PASSES TO THE SOUTH OF THE LAKE AND INCREASE. MODELS STILL SHOWING A GOOD DEAL OF WIND ALOFT WITH A TIGHTENING GRADIENT...QUESTION WILL BE WHAT PERCENTAGE OF THAT CAN BE REALIZED AT THE SURFACE. WILL STICK WITH TO 30 KNOTS ON THE LAKE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. LIGHTER NORTHERLY FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE LAKES. WARM TEMPERATURES AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THE BREAKUP OF ICE. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...FLOOD WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089. PA...FLOOD WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR PAZ001>003. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MULLEN NEAR TERM...MULLEN SHORT TERM...MULLEN LONG TERM...DJB AVIATION...KOSARIK MARINE...OUDEMAN WWWW