FXUS61 KCLE 201345

AFDCLE



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH

945 AM EDT SAT MAR 20 2010



.SYNOPSIS...

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING

AND THEN STALL ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO TODAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM

WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY MONDAY



&&



.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

BEST ESTIMATION IS THAT THE COLD FRONT IS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER

OF COUNTIES AND EXTENDS FROM JUST SOUTH OF KGUS TO KMFD VCNTY TO

NORTH OF KYNG AND NORTH OF KGKJ BASED ON WINDS AND/OR PRESSURES.

ACROSS NWRN OHIO WINDS ARE NORTHEAST AND HAVE BECOME MORE PARALLEL

TO THE FRONT WHILE EASTERN SECTIONS WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE

KHZY/KERI/KYNG OR LIGHT NORTH KCLE/KMFD. THEREFORE FRONT IS MOVING

VERY SLOWLY. LONG LOOP OF PRECIP TO OUR NORTHWEST SHOWS VERY

LITTLE IF ANY PROGRESSION SOUTHEAST. SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS CLOUDS

WILL BE ACTUALLY THINNING FOR THE AFTERNOON BEFORE EVENTUALLY

INCREASING AT SOME POINT LATER THIS EVENING/TNGT. RUC ALSO AGREES.

THEREFORE WILL LOWER POPS TO A SLIGHT CHANCE WEST AND REMOVE ANY

MENTION ELSEWHERE. WILL ALSO GO WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. TEMPS

TRICKY WITH TIGHT GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA. WOULD EXPECT LOW/MID

40S ALONG THE LAKESHORE AND NW RISING INTO THE LOWER 60S FAR

SOUTH.  





COLD FRONT JUST INTO TOLEDO SHOULD BE ACROSS THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES 

BY DAYBREAK AND PUSH SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY THIS 

AFTERNOON.  SO HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE EARLY WITH STEADY OR EVEN 

FALLING TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON. WENT A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL 

FOR THE HIGHS AS MOS HAS BEEN RUNNING A COUPLE OF DEGREES COLD THE 

PAST FEW DAYS. LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THE SYSTEM.  DEEPEST MOISTURE 

WILL BE ACROSS NW OH SO PUT A 30 POP THERE THIS AFTERNOON. JUST

CARRIED A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES FOR THIS AFTERNOON EVERYWHERE ELSE.



&&



.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

WITH FRONT STALLED JUST TO THE SOUTH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL OCCUR 

TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BEGINS INCREASE...SO LEFT CHANCE POPS 

ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA TONIGHT. 



MODELS MUCH SLOWER WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM.  LOW NOT PROGGED TO MOVE 

ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY NOW UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON. ECMWF

TRACKS THE LOW ACROSS SE OH WHILE THE NAM IS THE FURTHEST SOUTH

WITH THE LOW TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN WV. WENT CATEGORICAL OR

LIKELY WITH THE RAIN MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WITH THE SLOWER

TRACK OF THE LOW COULD SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS NE OH AND

NW PA TUESDAY MORNING.



&&



.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

FLOW REMAINS PROGRESSIVE IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST 

BUT THE TIMING OF SYSTEMS IS IN QUESTION. MOST EVERYONE SEEMS TO 

AGREE THAT THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM WILL BE THE MAJOR PLAYER LATE IN THE 

WEEK WHICH IN TURN SEEMS TO INFER THAT THE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE 

SHOULD ALSO BUILD EAST SOUTHEAST BY THE WEEKEND. STILL SOME 

DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS. BARELY HAD TIME TO LOOK AT THE 20/00Z 

ECMWF WHICH LOOKS LIKE IT IS STARTING TO LINE UP MORE WITH THE OTHER 

MODELS...AT LEAST ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WEAK COLD FRONT/TROUGH 

APPEARS AS IF IT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. 

WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY ON WEDNESDAY AS MOST MODELS HAVE NO QPF. 



A STRONGER SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK WITH 

THE ECMWF FASTER BRINGING THE FRONT ACROSS THE AREA BY FRIDAY 

MORNING. AT THE SAME TIME THE SOUTHERN STORM SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO 

TRACK EASTWARD. NOT SURE HOW FAR NORTH THE PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD 

OR WHETHER THE PRECIPITATION CAN BE ENHANCED BY THE COLD FRONT AND 

EXACTLY HOW FAST IT MIGHT ALL DEVELOP. IF THE PRECIPITATION DOES GET 

THIS FAR NORTH IT VERY WELL COULD BE SNOW...BUT OFTEN THESE TYPES OF 

SYSTEMS RUN UP TOWARD I-70 AND DO NOT COME MUCH FARTHER NORTH. TOO 

EARLY TO TELL AND WILL MENTION A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW THURSDAY 

INTO FRIDAY. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 40S BUT IF WE 

WERE TO GET PRECIPITATION/SNOW IT WOULD OBVIOUSLY BE COLDER.



&&



.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

THE COLD FRONT IS SOUTH OF THE LAKESHORE AND SHOULD MOVE SOUTH OF

ALL THE TAF SITES BY MIDDAY. VIRTUALLY NO WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH

THE FRONT EXCEPT FOR A WIND SHIFT. STRATUS/STRATOCUMULUS IS

ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN AND WILL LIKELY SPREAD ACROSS KTOL THIS

MORNING. LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE AND UPWARD MOTION MAY KEEP CEILINGS

VFR AT THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF SITES TAKE UNTIL EARLY TONIGHT

WHEN THE NEXT SURGE OF MOISTURE TRACKS ALONG THE FRONT. THE MVFR

CEILINGS WILL LIKELY EXPAND AND SPREAD SOUTH FROM NORTHWEST OHIO

AND FROM THE LAKESHORE TONIGHT AND A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE

POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO AND NEAR LAKE ERIE TONIGHT.



.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS WILL

INCREASE ON SUNDAY AND BE WIDESPREAD SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. MVFR

CEILINGS COULD LINGER NE OHIO ON TUESDAY OTHERWISE IMPROVING

CONDITIONS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.



&&



.MARINE...

FLOW WILL BE NORTH ON THE LAKE AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT 

THIS MORNING. THE GRADIENT IS INITIALLY RATHER LIGHT BUT IT WILL 

INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY 

MONDAY. THE NORTHEAST FETCH WILL LIKELY BRING THE FIRST SMALL CRAFT 

ADVISORY OF THE SEASON BY SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY. WINDS AND WAVES 

SHOULD DIMINISH ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE 

GREAT LAKES.



&&



.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

OH...NONE.

PA...NONE.

MARINE...NONE.



&&



$$

SYNOPSIS...DJB

NEAR TERM...DJB/TK

SHORT TERM...DJB

LONG TERM...KOSARIK

AVIATION...KOSARIK

MARINE...KOSARIK