FXUS62 KCAE 120019 AFDCAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC 719 PM EST THU MAR 11 2010 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE CROSSING THE AREA WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WHICH WILL BRING SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK PROVIDING PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... UPDATE AS OF 720 PM: HAVE UPDATED FORECAST FOR TONIGHT TO REDUCE POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE AND TO MENTION AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING BEFORE MIDNIGHT. WITH SOME MID-LEVEL DRYING OCCURRING...FOG WILL DEVELOP DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY FORMING OVER SE GA WILL CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD THIS EVENING AND GRADUALLY PUSH THE RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT THE RAIN TO HAVE ENDED BY MIDNIGHT FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTERWARD. WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 50S...AN INVERSION AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE ON THE GROUND WILL EXPECT AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT. CURRENTLY CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW FOR DENSE FOG/DENSE FOG ADVISORY...HOWEVER POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR DENSE FOG BY DAYBREAK. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDS AND CHANCES OF RAIN THROUGH THE DAY...WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. BEST CHANCE OF THUNDER APPEARS TO BE THE EVENING HOURS AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. BY SATURDAY MORNING THE FRONT WILL BE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER THE MID MS VALLEY IT WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A FEW SHORT WAVES TO CROSS THE REGION. CURRENTLY BELIEVE THE SHORT WAVE WILL NOT PRODUCE SHOWERS OVER THE AREA AS MOST OF THE ENERGY WILL BE ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA. SATURDAY NIGHT THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE TOWARD THE NEW ENGLAND STATES AND THEN WILL AWAY FROM THE AREA SUNDAY. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL ALLOW LOW PRESSURE TO LINGER ACROSS THE EASTERN US WITH CLOUDS AND CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH SUNDAY. ON MONDAY THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO PULL NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...HOWEVER WITH THE PATTERN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION. LATE TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SEND ANOTHER SPOKE OF ENERGY TO THE SOUTH AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE GULF TOWARD FL. ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM HAVE INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY...MAINLY ACROSS THE CSRA...AS MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO IMPROVE. LATE THURSDAY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE AREA AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE ATLANTIC BASIN. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE NEAR NORMAL TO A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH MID-LEVEL DRYING SHOULD HELP CAUSE STRATUS AND FOG TONIGHT. THE MOS IS CONSISTENT FORECASTING IFR CONDITIONS. THE MODELS INDICATE CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. EXPECT VERY SLOW IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES DESPITE SOME MIXING ASSOCIATED WITH DIURNAL WARMING. USED THE MAV MOS AND FORECASTED AN IMPROVEMENT INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY BEGINNING AROUND NOON. A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY UPPER LOW MAY SUPPORT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING WAS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE THE POSSIBILITY IN THE TERMINALS. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. GA...NONE. && $$ WWWW