FXUS62 KCAE 191835

AFDCAE



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC

235 PM EDT FRI MAR 19 2010



.SYNOPSIS...

DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...THEN MOVE OFF

THE COAST SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN WARM AND DRY

CONDITIONS SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY

AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY WITH

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS.



&&



.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING

CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT. 



&&



.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

MOSTLY SUNNY SATURDAY AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER AREA. SURFACE

RIDGE OFF THE COAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES QUITE WARM

WITH MAXIMUM APPROACHING 80 DEGREES WITH INCREASING WARM

ADVECTION. INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS LATE SATURDAY SO

OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES NOT AS COOL AS PREVIOUS NIGHTS. THE

TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE CONSISTENT. UPPER LOW IN THE

SOUTHWESTERN STATES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY

AND CLOSE OFF. MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW EAST PROGRESSION. SREF

SLOWER THAN OPERATIONAL MODELS...SUGGESTING POPS NEEDED FOR

MONDAY. STILL APPEARS OCCLUDED/COLD FRONT PASSAGE LATE SUNDAY

NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF

FRONT. SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LOW AT THE MOMENT DUE TO LIMITED

INSTABILITY BUT 0-1 KM SHEAR STRONG. BEST CHANCE RAIN SUNDAY

NIGHT. 









&&



.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES FOR MONDAY BUT UPPER LOW LIKELY

MOVING OVER THE CAROLINAS...SUGGESTING SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH

AFTERNOON...AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT REST

OF PERIOD WITH AIR MASS DRY THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK AND TEMPERATURES

NEAR CLIMATOLOGY. NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE SOUTHEAST END OF PERIOD.



&&



.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH THE TAF 

PERIOD WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA AS WELL. VFR CONDITIONS 

WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. NO WIDESPREAD EARLY MORNING FOG EXPECTED 

SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD. 

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. 



EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...BY 

SUN...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL 

APPROACH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS ARE 

EXPECTED ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...WHICH MAY PRODUCE AREA OF 

MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT 

IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED.



&&



.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

SC...NONE.

GA...NONE.



&&



$$