FXUS62 KCAE 010621 AFDCAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC 221 AM EDT SUN AUG 1 2010 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. A WEAK FRONT WILL REMAIN NEAR THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN BY TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/... NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS CROSSING THE AREA THIS EVENING. LOOKS LIKE HEAVY RAIN AND LIGHTNING IS NOW THE MAIN THREAT. BEST INSTABILITY EXTENDS FROM THE MIDLANDS WESTWARD TO EASTERN GA.SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. HAVE INCREASED POPS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LINGERING AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT OUT OF THE REGION. SUNDAY NIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING OVER THE AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING TO THE AREA ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S AND CLIMBING TOWARD THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S ON MONDAY. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED MONDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES A BIT OF DRIER AIR ALOFT OVER THE REGION AND A WEAK MID LEVEL CAP IS EXPECTED. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY REBUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SOME WEAKNESS IN THE EASTERN FRINGES OF THE RIDGE INTO LATE WEEK. MAINLY LOW POPS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AND CHANCE POPS INTO THE WEEKEND. FORECAST HIGH TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE MID 90S WITH FORECAST LOWS IN THE MID 70S. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... MIX OF CONDITIONS FROM IFR TO VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD ALONG WITH COME LOW CLOUDS AND CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA. FIRST CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR FOG THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WITH CONSIDERABLE AMOUNTS OF RAIN AT ALL TAF SITES WILL EXPECT FOG AND STRATUS TO DEVELOP DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH IFR AT AGS/OGB AND MVFR ELSEWHERE. AFTER THE FOG DISSIPATES THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR MORE SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...ESPECIALLY TOWARD OGB. AS SUCH WILL CARRY VCTS AND CB FOR ALL LOCATIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WITH CIGS LOWERING VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD AS MOISTURE BECOMES TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION AGAIN. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHRA/TSRA MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. GA...NONE. && $$