FXUS65 KBYZ 112217 AFDBYZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT 317 PM MST THU MAR 11 2010 .SHORT TERM...VALID FOR FRI AND SAT... RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST WILL BRING WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL BE GUSTY ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AT TIMES PUSHING TEMPERATURES TOWARD 60 DEGREES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER YELLOWSTONE PARK WILL GENERATE GUSTY GAP FLOW WINDS FROM LIVINGSTON TO NYE TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD STAY BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS...BUT GUSTS TO 45 MPH ARE LIKELY AT TIMES. THIN CIRRUS CLOUD COVER COMBINED WITH THE GUSTY WINDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING TONIGHT OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS WEST AND INTO CENTRAL. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS OVER EASTERN AREAS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE TEENS WITH SNOW COVER IN PLACE THERE. PATCHY FOG IS A POSSIBILITY IN AREAS WITH SNOW COVER AS WELL TONIGHT...THOUGH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL LIMIT THE COVERAGE. BUMPED HIGH TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 60 DEGREES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IN THE WEST AND CENTRAL ZONES...WITH NEAR 50 EXPECTED EVEN IN FAR EASTERN AREAS BY SATURDAY. SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM TIME TO TIME...HOWEVER PLENTY OF SUN IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. MORE SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER MOVES INTO THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN AREAS LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL DIVE SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THIS WILL LEAVE WIDESPREAD MOISTURE AND WEAK UPWARD MOTION OVER THE AREA FOR ISOLATED TO POSSIBLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. NORTHERLY UPSLOPE WINDS INTO AN UNSTABLE LOWER ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF SNOW TO BEARTOOTH AND BIG HORN FOOTHILLS LOCATIONS...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES ARE FAIRLY WARM AND LIFT IS SOMEWHAT SHALLOW SO NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN A FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION AT THIS POINT. CHAMBERS .LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU... THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS SUNDAY MORNING WITH GENERALLY FAIR MODEL AGREEMENT. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION SPLITS BY EARLY SUNDAY. THE BULK OF THE ASSOCIATED ENERGY TRACKS SOUTH OF THE CWA. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER MUCH OF THE CWA GIVEN THE BROAD TROUGH OVERHEAD. AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FOR EARLY PORTIONS OF THE WORK WEEK. DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. BLENDED MAX TEMP FORECASTS WITH THE RAW ECMWF. USED THE RAW GFS FOR MIN TEMPS. THE NEXT UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE CWA BY WEDNESDAY. THE INITIAL PUSH FROM THIS WAVE GLANCES THE CWA TO THE NORTHWEST. TWEAKED INHERITED POPS OVER THE WESTERN ZONES IN RESPONSE. THE SECONDARY PUSH OF ENERGY WILL IMPACT THE CWA ON THURSDAY. LEANED MORE ON THE GFS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT SPREADS OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES FOR THURSDAY. STRONG MID-LEVEL OMEGA VALUES AND DECENT QPF WERE ALSO NOTED. THEREFORE...INCREASED POPS OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES FOR THURSDAY. LINGERED POPS INTO EARLY FRIDAY OVER MUCH OF THE CWA. SCHUKNECHT && .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME. STRONG WINDS ALONG THE BEARTOOTH FOOTHILLS...INCLUDING KLVM...WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. EXPECT WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 KTS OVERNIGHT FOR THESE LOCATIONS. WINDS FOR THESE LOCATIONS WILL TAPER OFF SLIGHTLY BY MID-MORNING FRIDAY. GUSTY WINDS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF LOW-LEVEL MIXING. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO BE FAVORABLE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT OVER THE FAR EASTERN ZONES EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...INCLUDING KBHK. SCHUKNECHT && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU ----------------------------------------------------------- BIL 035/061 037/062 034/046 028/054 034/062 038/059 032/048 00/U 01/B 22/W 10/U 00/U 01/B 13/W LVM 035/057 035/058 029/046 025/056 029/062 032/056 027/045 00/N 02/W 42/W 10/B 00/U 12/W 23/W HDN 026/060 030/061 030/046 025/054 029/060 032/061 029/050 00/U 00/B 22/W 10/B 00/U 01/B 12/W MLS 023/051 026/056 025/040 024/046 027/051 029/057 028/047 00/U 00/U 11/B 10/B 00/U 01/B 12/W 4BQ 024/053 028/059 028/043 026/047 028/054 030/060 028/048 00/U 00/U 12/W 10/B 00/U 00/B 12/W BHK 016/048 021/049 022/037 026/041 025/045 028/052 026/044 00/U 00/U 11/B 11/B 00/U 01/B 12/W SHR 023/057 029/062 029/044 024/052 027/059 030/059 029/046 00/U 00/B 22/W 10/B 00/U 01/B 13/W && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...NONE. WY...NONE. && $$ WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS WWWW