FXUS61 KBTV 312316 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 716 PM EDT SAT JUL 31 2010 .SYNOPSIS... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT...AND WEAKEN. MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE...AND MORE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. OVERALL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... AS OF 330 PM EDT SATURDAY...DIURNAL CLOUDS WHICH HAVE FORMED THIS AFTERNOON WILL GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AGAIN OVERNIGHT AS REGION IS STILL UNDER INFLUENCE OF WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE. TONIGHT WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT WITH 850 TEMPS AROUND 4 DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT. LOWS WILL GENERALLY ME IN THE 40S WITH CLOSER TO 50 ALONG LAKE CHAMPLAIN AND IN THE UPPER 30S IN THE SHELTERED COLDEST SPOTS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND FOG IS EXPECTED IN THE NORMALLY FOG PRONE LOCATIONS. SOME MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR WESTERN CWA THIS EVENING AS VORT PASSES TO OUR SOUTHWEST ACROSS NY AND PA. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 340 PM EDT SATURDAY...SHORT TERM FORECAST IS RATHER TRICKY WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA. ON SUNDAY HAVE MENTIONED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ALONG OUR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES AS SYSTEM AND WAA APPROACHES FROM THAT AREA. REGION IS UNDER NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. A FEW VORTS WILL PASS THROUGH THIS FLOW BRINGING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. QPF AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT WITH THESE FEATURES. 850 TEMPS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT SO HIGH TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL AGAIN...RIGHT AROUND 80 HERE IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. TIMING THESE INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES IN THE FAST FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY MORE DIFFICULT THRU TIME...ESPECIALLY IF CONVECTION DEVELOPS...BY EARLY THIS UPCOMING WEEK. HAVE MENTIONED SOME HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...BUT STILL HAVE NOT GONE LIKELY DUE TO LACK OF CONFIDENCE WITH TIMING AND LOCATION OF VORTS. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 251 PM EDT SATURDAY...TUESDAY THRU WED NGT...WK WARM FRNT TUESDAY MORNING WILL BRING -RW/-TRW TO AREA. MDL LOW TRACK WILL KEEP BULK OF/BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. TRAILING CD FRNT SAGS OVER N CWA W/ VERY LITTLE PUSH SOUTH DUE TO ZONAL FLOW SETTING UP OVER THE NORTHEAST. WILL KEEP POPS NEAR CHANCE FOR PRECIP ATTM...W/ LESSENING CHANCES FOR TRW AS EVENING PROGRESSES W/ LACK OF DAYTIME HEATING. THURSDAY THRU SATURDAY WILL HAVE SFC RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM THE EAST. SOME LINGERING CLDS/-RW OVER THE CWA ON THURSDAY AS UPPER TROUGH MVS ACROSS THE AREA. NNW FLOW ASSOCIATED W/ TROUGH PUSHING SOUTH WILL HELP IN KEEPING BULK OF -RW IN HIR ELEV...BFR TAPERING OFF IN THE AFTERNOON. FULL SUNSHINE EXPECTED GOING INTO FRI/SAT...SO HAVE KEPT TEMPS NEAR MDL GUIDANCE...PUTTING HIGHS NEAR 80F IN VALLEYS AND MID TO UPPER 70S ELSEWHERE. && .AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR CONDS EXPECTED FOR THE MOST PART OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIDGES ACROSS THE AREA. MAINLY SKC TO SCT MID LVL CLOUDS EXPECTED WITH LIGHT FLOW AT 5 KNOTS OR LESS ESSENTIALLY GOVERNED BY MESOSCALE FLOW SUCH AS VALLEY/LAKE BREEZES THROUGH THE PERIOD. ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE TYPICAL EARLY MORNING IFR BR/FG AT CLIMO FAVORED TERMINALS OF KMPV/KSLK FROM 07-11Z. OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... 00Z MONDAY THRU 12Z MONDAY...VFR THOUGH WITH EARLY MORNING IFR BR/FG AT KMPV/KSLK. 18Z MONDAY THRU 00Z THURSDAY...VFR WITH SCT MVFR IN SHOWERS AND A FEW AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO EARLY MORNING IFR BR/FG POSSBL... ESP AT KSLK/KMPV. 00Z THURSDAY THRU 00Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NEILES NEAR TERM...NEILES SHORT TERM...NEILES LONG TERM...JN AVIATION...JMG/JN