FXUS64 KBRO 121531

AFDBRO



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX

931 AM CST FRI MAR 12 2010



.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE BROUGHT 

SUBSTANTIAL DRY AIR ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS...AND WILL BRING SUNNY 

SKIES AND MILD TEMPERATURES. RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BOTTOM 

OUT BETWEEN 10 AND 20 PERCENT. 

&&



.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...THE LONGER RANGE

PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A STRONG 500 MB TROUGH AXIS DIGGING

ACROSS SOUTHERN TX MON NIGHT INTO TUES. THIS WILL USHER THROUGH A

PRETTY STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION LATE MON WITH FAIRLY

DECENT CAA OCCURRING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR MOST OF NEXT

WEEK. EXPECT NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FOR THE BULK OF

THE EXTENDED RANGE PERIOD. THE LATEST GFS RUN HAS COME IN A LITTLE

DRIER WITH THE FROPA VERSUS THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS. THIS IS

TRENDING MORE IN LINE WITH THE 00Z ECMWF WHICH IS NOT OPTIMISTIC

FOR PCPN CHCS ACROSS THE REGION WITH THIS SYSTEM. WILL DECIDE

THIS AFTERNOON WHETHER OR NOT TO REDUCE POPS IN THE EXTENDED RANGE

PERIOD. NO CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME WITH THE EXTENDED RANGE

FORECAST WORDING. 

&&



.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH 24 HOURS WITH CLEAR SKIES.

NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY WILL BECOME L/V OVERNIGHT...SWITCHING TO THE

SOUTHWEST TOMORROW. DRY AIR AT THE SFC WILL PRECLUDE FOG FORMATION.

GOOD FLYING WEATHER EXPECTED TOMORROW FOR THE AIR SHOW AT KBRO. 

&&



.MARINE...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN 

EFFECT UNTIL NOON FOR THE GULF ZONES FOR WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS. SEAS 

HAVE ONLY RECENTLY BEGUN TO INCREASE...CURRENTLY AT 5 FEET AT THE 

BUOY. SEAS MAY BRIEFLY REACH 7 FEET AROUND NOON...BUT WILL DECREASE 

AGAIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...SO SCA WILL LIKELY NOT NEED EXTENDING. 

CALMER CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE TONIGHT AND THE DAY TOMORROW WITH 

LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW.

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  76  51  78  57 /   0   0   0   0 

BROWNSVILLE          77  50  82  56 /   0   0   0   0 

HARLINGEN            79  48  85  54 /   0   0   0   0 

MCALLEN              82  50  86  55 /   0   0   0   0 

RIO GRANDE CITY      83  50  86  56 /   0   0   0   0 

SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   71  55  72  59 /   0   0   0   0 

&&



.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON

CST TODAY FOR GMZ150-155-170-175. 

&&



$$



THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:

HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE



SHORT TERM...64

LONG TERM...60





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