FXUS65 KBOU 312049

AFDBOU



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO

250 PM MDT SAT JUL 31 2010



.SHORT TERM...THE BROAD HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE 

REGION AS AMPLE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ROTATE AROUND THE HIGH...WITH 

THE HIGHEST MOISTURE LEVELS OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF 

THE CWA. INTEGRATED PW VALUES SHOWING AROUND AN INCH OVER THE FRONT 

RANGE TO NEAR 1.4" OVER EASTERN PORTIONS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING 

A MID LVL CIRCULATION WHICH HAS BEEN MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS LINCOLN 

AND WESTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY TODAY AND THIS HAS CREATED MOST OF THE 

CONVECTION JUST EAST OF OUR CWA BUT NOW STORMS EXTENDING UP INTO 

WASHINGTON CO. WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH BUT 

LINCOLN CO DOESN'T LOOK ALL THAT FAVORABLE RIGHT NOW AS IT HAS BEEN 

UNDER CLOUD COVER AND LESS CAPE AVAILABILITY. GIVEN THE STRONG 

SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW...LOWEST CHANCES WILL BE OVER THE DENVER AREA BUT 

A BETTER CHANCES FURTHER NORTH ACROSS LARIMER CO WITH STRONGER CAPES 

OF 1000-1500J/KG AND FAVORABLE SERLY FLOW. THE STORMS THAT ARE IN 

THE HIGHER EAST SLOPES WILL MOST LIKELY STAY ANCHORED TO THE HIGHER 

TERRAIN AS PROFILERS SHOWING THE E-SE FLOW UP TO AROUND 500MB WITH 

VERY LOW STORM MOTIONS. SHOULD SEE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT FURTHER 

SOUTH INTO THE WATCH AREA WITH STILL ONGOING HEATING. 



AS FOR SUNDAY...EXPECT MORE ACTIVITY OVER THE FRONT RANGE AND 

WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA AS WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING AN 

EASTERLY WAVE ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WHICH IS 

EXPECTED TO SLOWLY ROTATE NORTHWARD INTO OUR CWA BY LATE SUNDAY THRU 

SUNDAY NIGHT. WOULD EXPECT SOME ENHANCED ACTIVITY WITH THE WEAK 

ASCENT WITH THIS WAVE. THE HIGHER POPS ALREADY REFLECTED IN THE 

GRIDS AND THIS SHOULD BE OK FOR NOW. AGAIN...MAIN THREAT WILL BE 

FLASH FLOODING WITH STORM MOTIONS UNDER 5KT. OVERALL FLASH FLOOD 

THREAT MAY END UP BEING HIGHER SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT WOULD LIKE TO 

ASSESS HOW TODAYS CONVECTION PLAYS OUT BEFORE TARGETING AN AREA FOR 

SUNDAY. 



.LONG TERM...PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL 

CONTINUE ROTATING OVER COLORADO IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF 

THE UPPER HIGH. THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF 

NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER HIGH REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE 

SOUTHERN PLAINS AND TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHWESTERN US CONTINUES. 

THIS WILL KEEP SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS WET THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE 

HIGHER TERRAIN AND SLIGHTLY LESS COVERAGE OVER THE PLAINS. STORM 

MOTION WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH 

WILL DECREASE THE AMOUNT OF FLOODING POTENTIAL A BIT. CAPES ON 

MONDAY WILL BE UP NEAR 1500-2500 J/KG OVER THE PLAINS WITH PW VALUES 

INCREASING A LITTLE TO 1.3-1.6 INCHES AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES SOUTH 

ACROSS THE STATE MONDAY MOTIONS NEAR ZERO. UPSLOPE BEHIND THE FRONT 

COULD ANCHOR THE HEAVIEST RAIN PRODUCING STORMS TO THE FOOTHILLS.  

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL SEE MORE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS 

ACROSS THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING TO NEAR OR JUST BELOW 

NORMAL.  THURSDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO DRY OUT A BIT 

AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS SLIGHTLY. HOWEVER THERE WILL STILL BE 

SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF DIURNAL STORMS IN THE 

FORECAST.      



&&



.AVIATION...THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LOCAL TERMINALS 

LOOKS MINIMAL AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE SERLY FLOW AND LOWER SFC BASED 

CAPES. WOULD HAVE TO RELY ON OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES TO GET ANYTHING 

GOING. THE MODEST SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND SHIFT 

MORE SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT. EXPECT A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS 

OVER THE AIRPORTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE UPPER WAVE APPROACHING 

THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. 



&&



.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9PM FOR 

THE PALMER DIVIDE...ELBERT AND LINCOLN COUNTIES. (ZONES 41..46..47)



$$



ENTREKIN/KRIEDERMAN