FXUS65 KBOI 010317

AFDBOI



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID

917 PM MDT SAT JUL 31 2010



.DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE CONFINED TO A SMALL PART OF VALLEY

COUNTY NORTHWEST OF MCCALL AS OF 9 PM MDT. SATELLITE AND SURFACE

OBS INDICATE THAT THIS IS THE ONLY AREA REMAINING THAT IS MOIST

ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. THE RED FLAG WARNING WAS

ALLOWED TO EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE AT 9 PM MDT. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY

CLEAR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. WILL ISSUE AN UPDATE TO DECREASE

POPS...QPF...AND SKY COVER.



&&



.AVIATION...SOLATED MVFR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL ID MTNS 

/NORTH OF KMYL/ THROUGH 06Z. ELSEWHERE...VFR UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR 

SKIES. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE 

SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT. SUNDAY - VFR.



&&



.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...ABUNDANT LIGHTNING IS

EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING OVER NE/EAST CENTRAL OREGON AND

ACROSS IDAHO FROM THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TO THE MAGIC VALLEY.

STARTING LAST SUNDAY IN OREGON...AREAS OF ABUNDANT LIGHTNING HAVE

OCCURRED ACROSS THE CWFA FOR 6 DAYS...THE PEAK WAS PROBABLY

WEDNESDAY. A MUCH LESS ACTIVE PERIOD IS ON TAP STARTING SUNDAY.

ALSO THIS AFTERNOON LOOKS TO BE THE HOTTEST UNTIL NEXT WEDNESDAY.

DRYING ALONG WITH LOCALLY BREEZY SW WINDS HAVE MOVED INTO MALHEUR

AND OWYHEE COUNTIES FROM NW NV. MOISTURE HAS INCREASED ACROSS NW

HARNEY AND BAKER COUNTIES FROM THE WEST UNDER AN UPPER JET. THE

WEST CENTRAL AND BOISE MOUNTAINS TO SOUTH CENTRAL IDAHO ARE UNDER

THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE PERSISTENT PLUME OF MID LAYER MOISTURE.

AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO SHIFT INLAND ON THE STRONG

UPPER JET...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE

AFTERNOON WITH THE IDAHO MOISTURE AND THROUGH THE EVENING WITH THE

OREGON MOISTURE. LOCALLY BREEZY SW 15-25 MPH WINDS ACROSS EASTERN

OREGON WILL DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 MPH FOR OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES

WILL BE ON THE WAY BACK TOWARDS NORMAL THIS EVENING THEN REBOUND

MONDAY AFTERNOON. AFTER THIS EVENING WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.



LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL 

REMAIN ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO 

THE WEEKEND.  THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL KEEP GENERALLY DRY 

CONDITIONS OVER THE FORECAST AREA UNDER A SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW 

ALONG WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.  WEAKER SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE 

EAST ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER FOR A SMALL CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND 

EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS 

STARTING WEDNESDAY EVENING. THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE OF

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST IDAHO THURSDAY AFTERNOON

AND FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST

AND MONSOON MOISTURE MOVE NORTH INTO IDAHO. DECREASING CHANCE OF

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY AS THE

MONSOON MOISTURE MOVES TO THE EAST AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH

BEGINS TO SHIFT BACK TO THE EAST...EXCEPT IN THE WEST CENTRAL

MOUNTAINS WHERE ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY REMAIN TO KEEP AT LEAST A

SLIGHT CHANCE THERE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL.



&&



.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

ID...NONE.

OR...NONE.

&&



$$



WEATHER.GOV/BOISE



DISCUSSION...SP

AVIATION.....MT

PREV SHORT TERM...VM

PREV LONG TERM....JA/BB