FXUS61 KBGM 201447 AFDBGM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 1047 AM EDT SAT MAR 20 2010 .SYNOPSIS... DRY AND MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY, WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS. A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS NY SATURDAY NIGHT, THEN STALL OUT OVER CENTRAL PA. THE FRONT WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... ...UPDATED AT 1045 AM... WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY IS SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AS OF LATE MORNING...EXTENDING FROM JUST SOUTHEAST OF KSYR AND KRME...TO NEAR HORNELL...AS OF 14Z. ONLY THIN HIGHER-LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...WITH ANY THICKER CLOUD COVER WELL BEHIND THE FRONT...ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO. THE FRONT SHOULD MAKE GRADUAL PROGRESS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AND AS SUCH...SOME OF THE MORE OPAQUE CLOUD COVER MAY EASE INTO THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES...MOHAWK VALLEY...AND SOUTHERN TUG HILL REGIONS. FARTHER SOUTH...A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE ANTICIPATED. A SOMEWHAT COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS WILL ALSO SLOWLY BLEED INTO OUR NORTHERN/FAR WESTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON...KEEPING HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S THESE AREAS. HOWEVER...FROM THE TWIN TIERS...DOWN THROUGH WILKES-BARRE/SCRANTON...AND THE POCONOS...MILDER AIR AND MORE SUNSHINE SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO ANOTHER VERY PLEASANT AFTERNOON (HIGHS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70). && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/... WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS NY STATE TONIGHT, THEN STALL ACROSS CENTRAL PA ON SUNDAY. WE ARE FAVORING SLIGHTLY LOWER POPS THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST INTO EARLY SUNDAY, AS MOISTURE REMAINS LOW AND COLD FRONT PROVIDES MEAGER LIFT. STRONGER STORM OVER THE PLAINS WILL SLIDE NORTHEASTWARD LATER SUNDAY, INCREASING LIFT AND MOISTURE INTO NY/PA. WITH A WEAK HIGH TO THE NORTH PROVIDING SOME AMOUNT OF BLOCKING, AND FLOW ALOFT BEING WEAK, THIS STORM WILL BE SLOW MOVING. THE HIGH EXTENDING INTO NORTHEASTERN NY COULD CAUSE A SHARP GRADIENT IN QPF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. BEST LIFT WILL BE ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF STATIONARY FRONT. MODERATE RAIN IS POSSIBLE FROM THE WILKES-BARRE SCRANTON AREA INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD BEGINS WITH SFC LOW PRES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC WHICH IS FORECAST TO PUSH EAST OFF THE COAST BY TUESDAY MORNING. MONDAY NIGHT, WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS NE PA, WESTERN CATSKILLS AND MUCH OF THE SUSQUEHANNA REGION. FURTHER WEST AND NORTH HIGH CHC POPS. FOR P-TYPE, AREAS EXPECTING THE MOST QPF WILL SEE JUST RAIN WITH WRN/NRN PTN OF CWA A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW. ON TUESDAY SYSTEM LIFTS FURTHER EAST WITH JUST CHC POPS ENTIRE CWA WITH HIGHEST POPS WESTERN CATSKILLS/POCONOS. TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY, LOOKS DRY WITH SFC HIGH PRES ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. FOR THE REMAINDER OF EXTENDED A SFC COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY. BEHIND FRONT DECENT CAA IS EXPECTED WITH GFS MUCH COLDER THAN ECMWF. ON FRIDAY, SFC LOW PRES IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE TN VLY ALONG COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY KEEPING CHC POPS THROUGH FRIDAY. PRECIP WED NGT/THURSDAY WILL BE RAIN SHOWERS WITH PRECIP CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING THEN BACK TO RAIN SHOWERS BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING. TEMPS THROUGH THURSDAY WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL GENERALLY 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE. AFTER FROPA TEMPS WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS. && .AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM WESTERN NY TO NEAR KART WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS TODAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING. ANY MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AND WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT. BASED ON UPSTREAM OBS AND MODEL SOUNDINGS...VFR CIGS APPEAR MOST LIKELY...SOMEWHERE AROUND 5KT TO 8KT. WITH THE FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH AND WEST...KSYR WILL BE THE FIRST TO SEE LOWER CIGS WHILE THEY MAY NOT WORK INTO KAVP UNTIL LATER TONIGHT. CIGS LOOK TO REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY STATE TONIGHT AROUND 4KFT. MODEL GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST SOME MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT THE NY STATE TERMINALS. MODEL SOUNDINGS DON'T LOOK CONVINCING ENOUGH TO INCLUDE ANY RESTRICTIONS AT THIS TIME. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TODAY AND GRADUALLY VEER TOWARD THE NORTH BY EVENING. NORTHERLY WINDS TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO VEER INTO THE NORTHEAST AND BE LESS THAN 5 KTS. .OUTLOOK... SUN NGT/MON/MON NGT...IFR/MVFR IN RAIN. TUE...MVFR IN RAIN. TUE NGT/WED...VFR THUR...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS. && .FIRE WEATHER... ...UPDATED AT 1045 AM... NOW THAT MIXING HAS BEGUN IN EARNEST...IT APPEARS THAT CONDITIONS WILL BE FAIRLY DRY AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON OVER NORTHEAST PA AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NY. COMBO OF HIGHS APPROACHING 70 IN SOME PLACES...AND DEW POINTS IN THE 30S...MEANS LOCALIZED RH VALUES BETWEEN 25% AND 30%. HOWEVER...MUCH LIKE ON FRI...ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS REMAIN WEAK...SO WE'RE ONLY LOOKING FOR 10-15 KT WINDS...AT THE MOST. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DJP NEAR TERM...MLJ SHORT TERM...DJP LONG TERM...RRM AVIATION...HEDEN FIRE WEATHER...MLJ