FXUS63 KAPX 112314

AFDAPX



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI

614 PM EST THU MAR 11 2010



.SYNOPSIS.../ISSUED AT 415 PM/



LOW PRESSURE OVER IOWA IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD A BAND OF RAIN ACROSS 

MICHIGAN TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES 

THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.



&&



.SHORT TERM.../ISSUED AT 415 PM/...TONIGHT



PARENT LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER IOWA...WORKING SLOWLY NORTHWARD 

THIS AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUING TO PUSH WAVES OF DEEPER MOISTURE/ 

CLOUD COVER/LIGHT PRECIP UP THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. EARLIER 

ROUND OF SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVING THROUGH THE CWA (ALONG INITIAL LOW 

LEVEL MOISTURE GRADIENT) HAS FIZZLED OUT AT THIS JUNCTURE. BUT NEXT 

ROUND OF PRECIP IS ALREADY OVERSPREADING SW LOWER MICHIGAN WORKING 

NORTHWARD...AS WELL AS A LINE OF CONVECTION BREAKING OUT ACROSS 

INDIANA...THE REMNANTS OF WHICH MAY EVENTUALLY MAKE A RUN INTO NRN 

MICHIGAN. 12Z/18Z MODEL GUIDANCE CERTAINLY CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THIS 

IDEA...PUSHING SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AS WE GO 

THROUGH THE NIGHT. PLAN TO CONTINUE THIS IDEA FOR THE AFTERNOON 

FORECAST WITH A PERIOD OF CATEGORICAL POPS FOR MOST AREAS 

TONIGHT...TAPERING OFF IN THE SW COUNTIES TOWARD MORNING.



OTHERWISE...WILL BE A VERY MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S. 

FOG MAY BECOME AN ISSUE...BUT PROBABLY NOT UNTIL MAIN SHOWER BAND 

EXITS TOWARD MORNING.   



ADAM 



&&



.LONG TERM.../ISSUED AT 415 PM/...FRIDAY AND BEYOND



CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD WITH 

SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL LIKELY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE 

MAIN LONG TERM FORECAST CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND THE MOVEMENT AND 

TIMING OF THE PLAINS SYSTEM THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. 



FRIDAY...LATEST WING OF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SWING NORTHEASTWARD 

ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE PLAINS SYSTEM 

CONTINUES TO SPIN ITS WHEELS. THEN THE QUESTION BECOMES HOW 

MUCH CLEARING AND IF SO...WHETHER OR NOT ANY CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION 

WILL DEVELOP. MODELS TRY TO HOLD ONTO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT WE 

HAVE BEEN ABLE TO SCOUR OUT THE LOW STUFF OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF 

DAYS SO EXPECT AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS 

SHOULD LEAD TO DECENT INSTABILITY DEVELOPMENT (MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES 

BETWEEN 6.5-7 C/KM) SO COULD SEE ADDITIONAL SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. 

INCREASED TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHWEST DOWNSLOPE AREAS INTO THE 

MIDDLE 50S (HOPE THAT IS ENOUGH) WITH ONLY MIDDLE 40S EXPECTED NEAR 

THE LAKE HURON SHORELINE DUE TO ON-SHORE FLOW.



FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...PLAINS STORM SYSTEM FINALLY LOOKS 

LIKE IT WILL MAKE A MOVE TO THE EAST WITH DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE AT 

THE SURFACE. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A LARGE AREA OF LIGHT RAIN 

PROGRESSING TO THE NORTHEAST. HOW FAR NORTH REMAINS THE QUESTION 

WITH LARGE AND EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING TO THE NORTH ACROSS 

CENTRAL CANADA. THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS FAR NORTH 

AND BUMP POPS UP TO HIGH LIKELY FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN LOWER EXCEPT 

CATEGORICAL FAR SOUTH. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S AND HIGHS 

SATURDAY IN THE COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL 40S. 



SUNDAY...ANY LEFTOVER LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO PEEL OUT OF THE AREA 

IN THE MORNING WITH CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON. MILD WITH HIGHS 

RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 40S EAST TO THE MIDDLE 50S WEST.



MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY....HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND 

ALOFT REESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO 

ANOTHER STRETCH OF DRY AND MILD WEATHER. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 

MIDDLE 40S TO LOWER 50S AND LOWS A BIT CHILLIER BUT STILL WAY ABOVE 

NORMAL WITH IN THE MIDDLE 20S TO LOWER 30S. 



SULLIVAN



&&



.MARINE.../ISSUED AT 440 PM/



EASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS

NORTHWARD THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST. HOWEVER...THINK LAKE STABILITY

WILL KEEP WINDS AND WAVES UNDER SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS THROUGH THE

NIGHT. WINDS/WAVES DIMINISH SOMEWHAT ON FRIDAY AND WILL REMAIN

BELOW SMALL CRAFT HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.



ADAM



&&



.AVIATION.../ISSUED AT 612 PM/...VALID FOR 00Z TAFS



LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL SEND A ROUND OF

WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAINFALL AND IFR CONDITIONS UP THROUGH NRN LOWER

MICHIGAN...LATER TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. RAIN WILL TRAIL

OFF SOUTH-NORTH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...BUT IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL

REMAIN THROUGH THE MORNING. CIGS/VSBYS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO

MVFR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  



JK

&&



.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...NONE.

LM...NONE.

LH...NONE.

LS...NONE.



&&



$$





WWWW