FXUS64 KAMA 010823 AFDAMA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX 323 AM CDT SUN AUG 1 2010 .DISCUSSION... THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOSTLY DISSIPATED ACROSS THE AMA CWA...AS THE VERY SMALL UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION. AS IT DOES SO...THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS. EVEN WITH THE HIGH FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVER THE REGION...THERE IS A SMALL THREAT OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE NW AMA CWA AS MOUNTAIN CONVECTION COULD PROPAGATE NEAR THE REGION...AND THE REMNANT FRONTAL AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR INITIATION IN THE AREA. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE SUBSIDENCE...AND WARMING MID AND UPPER LEVELS...IF CONVECTION DEVELOPS AT ALL IT SHOULD BE LIMITED IN COVERAGE AND DURATION. ON MONDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE REGION. THIS...JUXTAPOSED WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS SHOULD BRING WARM AND DRY AIR ADVECTION TO THE REGION...AT LEAST TEMPORARILY. CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ENTERS THE FORECAST BEYOND MONDAY. THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW A PARADE OF SURFACE TROUGHS AND COLD FRONTS PROPAGATING OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...YET DOES NOT REALLY BREAK DOWN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE UNLIKE YESTERDAYS RUN. THE ECMWF SHOWS ALMOST A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE BLOCKING PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN NEARLY STATIONARY. IN ADDITION...THE ECMWF SHOWS THAT ALL OF THE SURFACE TROUGHS AND COLD FRONTS WILL REMAIN NW OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...THERE ARE A NUMBER OF SOURCES OF UNCERTAINTY. FOR ONE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST OF THE U.S. HAS DEEPENED AND INTENSIFIED OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. THOUGH IT IS POSITIVELY TILTED...HEIGHT FALLS DOWN STREAM OF THE TROUGH WOULD SEEM TO INDICATE THAT IT WILL AT LEAST HAVE A SLOW PROPAGATION EASTWARD...SOMETHING THAT IS NOT WELL DEPICTED IN THE GFS OR ECMWF SOLUTIONS. DESPITE THE TIME OF THE YEAR AND THE FACT THAT THE TROUGH IS POSITIVELY TILTED...I THINK THIS WILL BE A MORE PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THAN EITHER THE GFS OR ECMWF ARE SHOWING...MAINLY BECAUSE THERE ARE MORE THAN A FEW LONGWAVES CURRENTLY IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE AND BECAUSE THE COLD FRONT YESTERDAY MADE IT FURTHER SOUTH THAN ANY MODEL WAS DEPICTING AND THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH...ALTHOUGH WEAK...WAS STILL DEEPER THE MODELS WERE SHOWING. THEREFORE...HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT TO REFLECT THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE SURFACE TROUGHS THOSE TWO DAYS WILL IN FACT DIG INTO THE AMA CWA. HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY BEYOND THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY OF HOW THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL EVOLVE. SJOHNSON && .FIRE WEATHER... NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED TODAY AS ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE REMAINS RELATIVELY HIGH. HOWEVER...INCREASING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AS DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN DRIER AIR...WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES NEAR OR BELOW 20 PERCENT BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...WINDS SHOULD BE NEAR OR ABOVE 15 MPH. HOWEVER...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED DUE TO MOIST FUELS. COOLER WEATHER BY LATE TUESDAY WILL RESULT IN MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. SJOHNSON && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMARILLO TX 97 66 99 66 97 / 5 0 0 5 5 BEAVER OK 103 68 105 68 104 / 5 0 0 5 5 BOISE CITY OK 98 66 100 65 95 / 20 5 5 5 20 BORGER TX 102 71 103 72 101 / 5 0 0 5 5 BOYS RANCH TX 100 67 103 66 100 / 5 0 0 5 10 CANYON TX 97 64 100 63 97 / 5 0 0 5 5 CLARENDON TX 99 69 101 68 97 / 5 0 0 5 5 DALHART TX 97 61 100 63 96 / 10 5 0 5 20 GUYMON OK 100 67 104 67 98 / 5 0 0 5 10 HEREFORD TX 96 64 98 63 97 / 5 5 0 5 5 LIPSCOMB TX 101 68 102 68 102 / 5 0 0 5 5 PAMPA TX 98 69 100 69 99 / 5 0 0 5 5 SHAMROCK TX 99 68 102 68 98 / 5 0 0 5 5 WELLINGTON TX 101 69 103 69 100 / 5 0 0 5 5 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. OK...NONE. && $$ 02/16