FXUS64 KAMA 111133 AAA

AFDAMA



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX

533 AM CST THU MAR 11 2010



.AVIATION...

FOR THE 12Z TAFS...THE LATEST ROUND OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD

BEGIN TO DISSIPATE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BY 15Z. SHOWERS COULD LINGER

AT KAMA THROUGH 20Z...BUT THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR ANY SHOWERS WILL

BE BEFORE 18Z. MVFR AND VERY LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE

WITH THE SHOWERS...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE

TAF PERIOD. THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE WINDS. THE WIND SHIFT WITH THE

COLD FRONT HAS ALREADY COME TO ALL THE TAF SITES. HOWEVER...A

SECONDARY SURGE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR BREEZY

TO WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGH 00Z. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH AS THEY

DECOUPLE NEAR SUNSET.



SJOHNSON

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CST THU MAR 11 2010/ 



DISCUSSION...

UPPER TROUGH TO TRACK EAST ACROSS WEST TX TODAY BRINGING ANOTHER

CHANCE FOR PRECIP TO MOST OF THE PANHANDLES. FEEL MOST OF THE PRECIP

WILL BE LIQUID...HOWEVER CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME

FROZEN EARLY THIS MORNING PRIOR TO 18Z. COLD FRONT SLIPPED THROUGH

THE PANHANDLES EARLIER SHIFTING THE WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTH. CAA

TODAY AS SURFACE PRESSURE AND 700 MB GRADIENT TIGHTENS. SYSTEM

QUICKLY MOVES OFF TO THE EAST BY 00Z FRIDAY AND DRIER AIR ADVECTS

INTO THE PANHANDLES ON NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND MID AND UPPER

TROUGH. DOWNSLOPING SURFACE FLOW TO INCREASE FRIDAY BETWEEN DEPARTING

MID AND UPPER TROUGH AND RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST ACROSS THE

SOUTHWESTERN STATES AND GREAT BASIN REGION. THEREFORE...EXPECTING

BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS LIKELY

FRIDAY. MID AND UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER THE PANHANDLES IN TIME FOR

THE WEEKEND...BUT WILL BREAK DOWN BY SUNDAY AS NEXT CLOSED UPPER LOW

TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND SOUTHWESTERN STATES.

GFS AND ECMWF FORECAST THE UPPER LOW TO DIG SOUTH BY EARLY NEXT WEEK

INTO MEXICO AND THEN MOVES THE SYSTEM EAST ACROSS THE BIG BEND AND

CENTRAL TX BY MONDAY NIGHT. THE GEM TRACKS THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE

FOUR CORNERS REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND MOVES IT SOUTHEAST INTO NM ON

SUNDAY. THE GEM THEN KEEPS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER NM SUNDAY NIGHT

BEFORE DIGGING IT SOUTH INTO WEST TX MONDAY. COLD FRONT TO PUSH

SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BRINGING MUCH

COOLER AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE PANHANDLES. WITH THE GEM

FORECASTING A FURTHER NORTH TRACK AND THE GFS AND ECMWF FORECASTING A

A FURTHER SOUTH TRACK...PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN QUESTIONABLE AS THE

BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE PANHANDLES.

IT APPEARS THAT THE CHANCES FOR PRECIP MOST LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO

MONDAY AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN NM AND FAR WEST TX.

WILL CALL FOR SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.



DRIER WITH A MODERATING TREND TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED

PERIOD AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.



SCHNEIDER



FIRE WEATHER...

DRIER CONDITIONS ALONG WITH INCREASING DOWNSLOPING NORTHWESTERLY

WINDS FRIDAY WILL RESULT IN POSSIBLE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

MINIMUM RH VALUES FRIDAY ACROSS THE SOUTH AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE

FORECAST AREA FORECAST TO BE IN THE 20 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE.

OTHEWRWISE...COOLER CONDITIONS AND LIGHTER WINDS ALONG WITH CHANCES

FOR PRECIP TODAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL RESULT IN

LITTLE TO NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST

PERIOD.



SCHNEIDER



&&



.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...NONE.

OK...NONE.



&&



$$



16/11