FXUS64 KAMA 181135 AAA AFDAMA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX 635 AM CDT THU MAR 18 2010 .AVIATION... IFR SATELLITE REVEALED LOW CLOUDS ENTERING THE SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE EARLY THIS MORNING...MOVING RAPIDLY NORTH. IFR/LIFR CEILINGS COULD CLIP KDHT AND KAMA BETWEEN 13Z AND 15Z...SO ADDED A TEMPO GROUP. OTHERWISE...SOUTH WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE DAY. THE LOW LEVEL JET EMERGES TONIGHT AND COULD POSE A PROBLEM WITH LLWS. FOR NOW...WE INCREASED THE SURFACE WINDS AROUND MIDNIGHT IN ANTICIPATION THAT THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO MIX OVERNIGHT. NUNEZ && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 446 AM CDT THU MAR 18 2010/ DISCUSSION... ONE MORE PLEASANT DAY BEFORE WINTER RETURNS TO THE PANHANDLES BY FRIDAY EVENING. MAIN CONCERN THIS MORNING IS ON PRECIP CHANCES/TYPE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PROVIDE LIGHT WINDS TO THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING HOWEVER A SFC LEE SIDE TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN OVER EASTERN CO IN ADVANCE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO DIG INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TODAY. THIS WILL CAUSE WINDS TO VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST TODAY. THESE DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL LEND TO A WARMER DAY TODAY WITH MOST AREAS CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER 70S. AS THE UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION LATE TONIGHT... CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA. MEANWHILE A SFC LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND WILL DRAG A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. THE NAM/GFS BRING THE FRONT THROUGH MOST OF THE AMA CWA BY NOON WHILE THE ECMWF/UKMET WAS A BIT SLOWER WITH FROPA. LEANED TOWARD THE FASTER NAM/GFS SOLUTIONS GIVEN THE COLD DENSE AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT. IRREGARDLESS...SHOULD SEE POST FRONTAL SHOWERS DURING THE DAY BUT AS STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION COMMENCES DURING THE AFTERNOON...THE HIGH TEMP FOR THE DAY SHOULD OCCUR IN THE MORNING. TEMPS WILL FALL DURING THE AFTERNOON AND HAVE SHOWN THIS BY USING A NON DIURNAL TEMP TREND IN THE GRIDS. NOT OVERLY EXCITED ABOUT THE PROSPECTS OF THUNDER IN THE SOUTH AND EASTERN SECTIONS GIVEN THE RAPID FROPA AND AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE BETTER INSTABILITY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AMA CWA ALTHOUGH IT/S STILL POSSIBLE FOR A FEW ISOLATED STORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE MORNING. PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES AND THERMAL PROFILES OFF THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT ALL SNOW EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. SHOULD SEE THE GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS IN THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA AND AFTER USING A 13:1 RATIO...HAVE TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3-5 INCHES TAPERING OFF TO 1-2 INCHES IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE. IN ADDITION A RATHER TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...RESULTING IN RATHER BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS WHICH MAY CREATE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. THIS SYSTEM WILL EXIT STAGE LEFT BY EARLY SATURDAY EVENING...AND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...DRY WX WILL RETURN. MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST REGION. RISING THICKNESSES AND A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CAUSE TEMPS TO REBOUND BACK INTO THE 60S AND 70S BY MONDAY. THE NORTHERN BRANCH UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WHILE A SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH ORIGINATING SOUTH OF THE BAJA CA REGION MERGES ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WEDNESDAY. A SFC LOW MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA. THE GFS BRINGS SOME SPOTTY QPF INTO THE AREA INITIALLY WEDNESDAY BEFORE A MORE WIDESPREAD AREA OF PRECIP MOVES IN THAT EVENING. THE ECMWF IS A BIT SLOWER WITH THIS SYSTEM AND THUS DELAYS THE ONSET OF PRECIP UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW HAVE JUST INCREASED POPS TO JUST BELOW SLIGHT CHANCE SINCE THIS IS STILL DAYS AWAY. CLK FIRE WEATHER... ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TODAY... RESULTING IN CYCLOGENESIS TO TAKE PLACE ACROSS EASTERN CO. SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN TO AROUND 20 MPH IN RESPONSE WHILE MINIMUM RH VALUES SHOULD FALL TO BETWEEN 15 TO 20 PERCENT. MARGINAL FUEL CONDITIONS SHOULD PRECLUDE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THIS AREA. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE PANHANDLES FRIDAY BRINGING WITH IT MUCH COLDER AIR ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. TEMPS WILL REMAIN COOL OVER THE WEEKEND KEEPING FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LOW THROUGH THEN. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY RETURN MONDAY AND TUESDAY HOWEVER AS A SFC LEE SIDE TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS EASTERN CO WITH RESULTING STRENGTHENING DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND RH VALUES FALLING BELOW 20 PERCENT. CLK && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. OK...NONE. && $$ 08/05