FXAK69 PAFG 312003 CCA AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 1202 PM AKDT SAT JUL 31 2010 CORRECTED MARINE DISCUSSION...IN PARAGRAPH 9...AKZ210 COAST CHANGED TO AKZ201 COAST. .DISCUSSION... STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER NORTHERN AK THROUGH SUN. RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT A LITTLE TO THE NORTHEAST MON THROUGH TUE WITH HEIGHTS STEADY OR DECREASING A LITTLE. UPPER LOW WEST OF DUTCH HARBOR THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE WOBBLE AROUND OVER OUTER BRISTOL BAY AND THE SOUTHERN BERING THROUGH TUE. MODEL POSITIONS FOR THE LOW CENTER VARY AFTER 12Z MON...HEIGHTS OVER THE SOUTHERN WEST COAST MAY FALL SOME THROUGH TUE BUT LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AND SUN OVER MUCH OF THE INTERIOR WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S...ISOLATED MID TO UPPER 80S POSSIBLE NEAR THE CANADA BORDER. BROOKS RANGE AND INTERIOR ARCTIC SLOPE WILL LIKELY CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S. FOR MON...THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE OVER THE BROOKS RANGE...INTERIOR ARCTIC SLOPE...AND THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE INTERIOR...ANOTHER ROUND OF UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S WITH SOME ISOLATED HIGHER READINGS NEAR THE ALCAN BORDER. THE ARCTIC COAST WILL ALSO BE QUITE WARM WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO LOW 70S. SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WITH THE STRONG UPPER RIDGING WILL CAP OFF CONVECTION TODAY...ONLY A FEW LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE AND NEARBY AREAS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING... OTHERWISE BLAZING SUN IN THE INTERIOR. A LITTLE MORE INSTABILITY EXPECTED IN AREAS ALONG AND NEAR THE ALASKA RANGE SUN AND MON WITH A SLIGHT NORTHWARD SHIFT OF THE RIDGE AXIS...A FEW AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. MARINE... SOUTHWEST WINDS TO AROUND 25 KT OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ARCTIC COASTAL WATERS WILL DIMINISH TODAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES EAST. THE NEXT LOW...993 MB CENTER NOW OVER CENTRAL SIBERIA ABOUT 1000 NM WEST OF THE BERING STRAIT...IS PROGGED TO MOVE EASTWARD TO THE CHUKCHI SEA BY 00Z MON...AND TO ABOUT 300 MILES NORTH OF DEMARCATION POINT BY 00Z TUE. RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE SHOWED GOOD CONTINUITY IN BOOSTING WIND SPEEDS OVER THE ARCTIC WATERS AND OVER THE WEST COAST WATERS NORTH OF THE BERING STRAIT. WILL POST HIGH SURF ADVISORIES FOR AKZ201 AND AKZ207 ON THE AFTERNOON FORECASTS...ADVISORIES WILL BEGIN 6 PM SUN. IN AKZ207...SOUTHWEST WINDS TO WINDS TO 25-30 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST NORTHWEST OF CAPE KRUSENSTERN SUN AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO MON EVENING. TIDES ARE EXPECTED TO BE UP TO 1 FOOT ABOVE NORMAL...WAVES TO 8-9 FT ARE EXPECTED WELL OFFSHORE AND UP TO 5-6 FT NEAR SHORE. SHORELINE EROSION LIKELY WILL OCCUR IN SOME LOW LYING AREAS...INCLUDING THE VILLAGE OF KIVALINA. AT SHISHMAREF...SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED...BUT WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONLY AROUND 20 MPH WITH LESS WAVE ACTION. THE RISE IN SEA LEVEL AT SHISHMAREF IS EXPECTED TO BE ONLY AROUND A QUARTER OF A FOOT. ALONG THE AKZ201 COAST...WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 30 MPH SUN EVENING...CONTINUING THROUGH MON NIGHT. WAVES UP TO 6 FT CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR SHORE ALONG PARTS OF THE AKZ201 COAST. WELL OFFSHORE...SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO AROUND 10 FT. MAXIMUM STORM SURGE ALONG THE COAST IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE RANGE OF 1.5 TO 1.8 FEET. SHORELINE EROSION WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOME LOW LYING AREAS. WAVES TO 6 FT COULD CAUSE DAMAGE TO THE SEAWALL AT WAINWRIGHT. COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE FOR DAY 4. SEE MARINE DISCUSSION ABOVE FOR DAYS 1-3. && .FIRE WEATHER... WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE INTERIOR THROUGH MON...WITH ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION EXPECTED ALONG AND NEAR THE AK RANGE. MIN RH NEAR 30 PERCENT IN MANY AREAS TODAY... SOME AREAS WILL HAVE MIN RH BELOW 30 PERCENT SUN AND MON. && .HYDROLOGY... THE PORCUPINE RIVER NEAR FT YUKON CRESTED NEAR 41.1 FT FRIDAY MORNING AND IS NOW FALLING. THE STAGE AT 10 AM THIS MORNING WAS 40.3 FT. THE FLOOD WATCH FOR THE PORCUPINE RIVER NEAR FT YUKON WAS CANCELLED FRI EVENING. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235. HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR AKZ201-AKZ207. && $$ RF JUL 10