FXAK69 PAFG 112151 AAA

AFDAFG



NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK

1251 PM AKST THU MAR 11 2010



CORRECTION TO CHANGE ZONE 207 TO ZONE 210 FOR WIND CHILL ADVISORY



.DISCUSSION...12Z MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH KEY FEATURES

THROUGH DAY THREE...AND GFS AND ECMWF NOT BAD THROUGH DAY FIVE.

488 DM 500 MB UPPER LOW OVER COOK INLET WILL WEAKEN AND LIFT N AS

AN OPEN TROUGH TOMORROW...ENDING UP SAT OVER WRN ARCTIC COAST. 

WEAK UPPER RIDGING AND LOW-HEIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL FOLLOW BEHIND

OVER ERN HALF OF ALASKA SAT/SUN. MON/TUE...THE REMAINS OF THE OLD

UPPER LOW AS AN OPEN UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT E ACROSS THE

NRN 2/3 OF AK...WITH RIDGING BUILDING N BEHIND IT ALONG THE W COAST

N OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA. 



N SLOPE: 987 MB OR SO SURFACE LOW 150 NM N OF PABR WILL CONTINUE TO

LIFT N TONITE. SNOW AND BLSN SNOW ZONES 202/203 WILL DIMINISH AS A 

RESULT...AND NO ADVISORIES LIKELY. LIGHT WINDS/STRATUS/FLURRIES FRI

IN WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW...THEN SOME SNOW AND AN INCREASE IN WESTERLY 

WINDS SAT AS ANOTHER SURFACE LOW SPINS UP IN LEE OF BROOKS RANGE WHEN

THE CURRENT COOK INLET LOW LIFTS N. FOR NOW...LOOKS TO BE SUB-ADVISORY

TYPE EVENT.



W COAST: LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH SAT...WITH COLD AIR IN PLACE...AREAS

OF FOG AND FLURRIES. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WEAKER NOW WITH SURFACE

LOW IN NRN GULF AK FILLING. BUT WINDS STILL HANGING IN OVER SEWARD PEN.

SO WILL ISSUE WIND CHILL ADVISORY ZONE 210 TONITE.



INTERIOR: MOISTURE WITH WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROUGHING OVER NRN GULF

AK COMBINED WITH THAT MOVING NE FROM 971 MB SURFACE LOW PLOWING INTO

PANHANDLE COMBINING TO PRODUCE OVER-RUNNING SNOW OVER ERN HALF INTERIOR.

THIS WILL CONTINUE TONITE...WITH 2-3 INCHES LIKELY ZONES 224/226...AND

1-2 INCHES ZONES 220/222/223. ACCUMULATING SNOW NOT LIKELY WEST OF ABOUT

PANN-PAHV-PAIN. FLURRIES OR -SHSN CONTINUING TOMORROW AS COOK INLET 

UPPER LOW LIFTS N. CLEARING AND WARMING SAT/SUN IN LOW-HEIGHT SOUTHERLY

FLOW. 



&&



.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR AKZ210.

&&



$$



MAR MAR 10





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