FXAK69 PAFG 201414

AFDAFG



NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK

614 AM AKDT SAT MAR 20 2010



.SYNOPSIS...

ALOFT...A STRONG HIGH OVER THE ARCTIC OCEAN NORTH OF BARROW WILL

PERSIST INTO TUE. A TROUGH ALOFT ALONG THE WEST COAST OF ALASKA

WILL WEAKEN SLOWLY THROUGH MON. THERE ARE AREAS OF SNOW ALONG THIS

TROUGH THAT WILL DIMINISH TO FLURRIES BY SUN. 



A SECOND TROUGH ALOFT FROM OLD CROW TO BARROW WILL MOVE TO DAWSON

TO TANANA BY 4PM SUN...AND THEN STRENGTHENS MON AS ANOTHER SHORT

WAVE FROM THE NORTHEAST MERGES WITH THIS FEATURE.



AT THE SURFACE...

AN ARCTIC FRONT IN THE NORTHEAST INTERIOR WILL MOVE TO DAWSON TO

BETTLES BY 4PM SAT...AND TO BURWASH LANDING TO DENALI TO AMBLER BY

4PM SUN. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL FALL 2C BEHIND THIS FRONT TODAY

AND ANOTHER 1-2C SUN. THIS WILL CAUSE SURFACE TEMPERATURES NORTH

OF THE FRONT TO FALL ABOUT 5F TODAY FROM FRI...AND TO FALL

ANOTHER 5F ON SUN. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL THROUGH WED. WILL

SEE NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS FRONT.



AN OLD OCCLUDED FRONT OVER THE SOUTHEAST INTERIOR WILL DISSIPATE

TONIGHT. THIS WILL CAUSE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE OVER

THE TOK AND NORTHWAY AREAS THROUGH TONIGHT. 



A 1044 MB HIGH NORTH OF BARROW WILL PERSIST INTO MON. THIS WILL

CAUSE EAST WINDS OF 15-25 MPH AND AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW TO

CONTINUE THROUGH MON ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST. 



&&



.DISCUSSION...

MODELS APPEAR TO INITIALIZE WELL AND SHOW SIMILAR SOLUTIONS

THROUGH MON. BEYOND THAT POINT WE WENT MORE WITH THE HPC SOLUTION.



&&



.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.

&&



$$



JB MAR 10