FXUS65 KABQ 312129 CCA AFDABQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM 316 PM MDT SAT JUL 31 2010 ...HEIGHTENED FLASH FLOOD THREAT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.. .DISCUSSION...NO CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUSLY ISSUED FLASH FLOOD WATCH THAT WAS EXPANDED TO INCLUDE ALL OF OUR CWA EXCEPT FOR THE EC/SE PLAINS THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...AND FOR CENTRAL/WESTERN ZONES SUN/SUN EVENING. HAVE OBSERVED A SUBTLE SHIFT IN THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL FLOW THE PAST 12-HOURS OR SO. SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ARE BEING STEERED TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AS OPPOSED TO THE SOUTHWEST AS WAS THE CASE FRIDAY PM. THIS PATTERN HAS FAVORED THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND LOWER WEST SLOPES OF THE SANGRES THUS FAR THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY FROM THE ALBUQUERQUE AREA NORTHWARD TO SANTA FE...ESPANOLA AND TAOS. ALSO A NOTICEABLE UPTICK IN TSTM COVERAGE OVER THE NORTHWEST QUARTER/SAN JUAN BASIN THAT MESHES NICELY WITH THE AXIS OF HIGHEST THETA-E AIR THAT EXTENDS FROM NERN AZ TO SWRN CO. COLDEST CLOUD TOPS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED HERE AS WELL. SCT/NMRS THUNDERSTORMS WITH TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE WEST. A MORE CONSOLIDATED SE TO NW FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST BY THE MODELS OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM STRENGTHENS. IN FACT...300-500 MB STREAMLINE PLOTS SUGGEST A NEARLY DUE SOUTH TO NORTH FLOW ORIENTATION BECOMING ESTABLISHED AT HIGHER LEVELS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS WILL ALLOW EVEN DEEPER SUB- TROPICAL MOISTURE TO SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY BACK TOWARDS THE EAST...AND THUS SUPPORTS AN EQUALLY IF NOT MORE ACTIVE TSTM PERIOD FOR SUN/SUN EVE. INCREASED POPS ACROSS CENTRAL/WESTERN AREAS...ESPECIALLY SUN EVE. THE ONE AREA WHERE STORMS HAVE NOT BEEN AS VIGOROUS AS EXPECTED HAS BEEN THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. HOWEVER...ISOLATED STORMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED ALONG A DIFFUSE SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT STRETCHES FROM JUST NORTHEAST OF RATON TO SOUTH OF CLAYTON. LARGE MCS NOTED OVER EC/SE COLORADO MAY REINFORCE THIS BOUNDARY OR SEND A NEW ONE SOUTH TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. SO WILL LEAVE FF WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS AND LET EVENING SHIFT REEVALUATE. MODELS INDICATE EAST-WEST RIDGING ALOFT FOR EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK...WHICH WOULD SHIFT THE HEART OF THE MOISTURE PLUME BACK TO THE WEST SLIGHTLY. OTHERWISE...MONDAY LOOKS FAIRLY ACTIVE ONCE AGAIN ESPECIALLY THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK REFLECTS POPS NEAR CLIMO WEST...WITH HOT/DRY CONDS EAST. DAYTIME TEMPS TRENDING UPWARD EACH DAY NEXT WEEK WITH TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT RETURNING EARLY FOR PLACES LIKE TUCUMCARI AND ROSWELL. KJ && .AVIATION... SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO TONIGHT...EXCEPT IN THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS OF THE STATE WHERE COVERAGE WILL BE MORE SPARSE. WIDESPREAD SLOW MOVING STORMS WILL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR TORRENTIAL RAINFALL... GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL...AND PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS DURING DOWNPOURS. ACTIVITY WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. TAFS WILL INCLUDE TEMPO GROUPS THROUGH EARLY EVENING EXCEPT FOR TCC AND ROW. NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 09Z. CHJ && .FIRE WEATHER... LACK OF FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS CAN BE SUMMED UP WITH FLASH FLOOD WATCH BEING ISSUED FOR OVER TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. WIDESPREAD WETTING AND AREAS OF TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE STATE...AS WELL AS THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT. EXCELLENT RH RECOVERY TONIGHT. MONSOON MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. BASIC UPPER AIR PATTERN BY MONDAY AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK WILL BE DEFINED BY HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST WITH SOME MID LEVEL DRY AIR GRADUALLY FILTERING INTO PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO. RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN THE WEST AND A FAVORABLE STEERING PATTERN FOR STORMS WILL KEEP SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVE IN MUCH OF THE WEST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WHILE EAST CENTRAL TO SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS SEE A DIMINISHED CHANCE FOR WETTING RAIN. CHJ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... FARMINGTON...................... 67 87 68 86 / 70 50 70 50 DULCE........................... 57 83 56 83 / 70 60 80 50 CUBA............................ 56 81 55 81 / 70 70 80 40 GALLUP.......................... 60 79 59 80 / 60 60 60 40 EL MORRO........................ 56 77 53 78 / 70 70 60 40 GRANTS.......................... 59 81 58 83 / 70 60 70 40 QUEMADO......................... 58 79 56 81 / 60 70 70 40 GLENWOOD........................ 63 84 58 87 / 60 70 60 30 CHAMA........................... 52 77 51 78 / 70 80 80 50 LOS ALAMOS...................... 60 83 61 84 / 60 70 70 30 PECOS........................... 57 83 57 84 / 70 60 60 20 CERRO/QUESTA.................... 53 81 52 84 / 60 60 60 30 RED RIVER....................... 51 72 46 75 / 60 60 60 40 ANGEL FIRE...................... 49 76 46 79 / 60 60 60 30 TAOS............................ 55 83 54 85 / 50 50 60 30 ESPANOLA........................ 60 90 58 91 / 60 50 60 20 SANTA FE........................ 60 83 61 85 / 70 70 60 20 SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 62 84 62 86 / 60 60 60 20 ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 66 87 65 88 / 60 60 60 20 ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 67 86 67 88 / 60 60 60 20 ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 65 88 63 89 / 60 50 50 20 ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 66 90 64 90 / 60 50 60 20 LOS LUNAS....................... 66 90 64 91 / 60 50 50 20 RIO RANCHO...................... 66 89 65 89 / 60 50 60 20 SOCORRO......................... 67 88 65 91 / 50 40 40 20 SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 58 81 56 85 / 70 70 60 20 MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 58 84 55 86 / 70 60 50 20 CLINES CORNERS.................. 60 82 60 85 / 60 60 50 20 GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 60 83 58 87 / 50 60 40 20 CARRIZOZO....................... 62 87 60 90 / 40 30 30 20 RUIDOSO......................... 57 79 54 82 / 40 40 30 20 CAPULIN......................... 59 86 56 89 / 40 30 30 30 RATON........................... 59 88 59 90 / 40 30 30 20 LAS VEGAS....................... 58 83 57 86 / 50 40 40 20 CLAYTON......................... 67 95 68 97 / 30 10 20 10 ROY............................. 65 89 62 92 / 40 20 40 20 CONCHAS......................... 69 98 68 99 / 30 10 30 10 SANTA ROSA...................... 64 94 60 96 / 20 20 20 20 TUCUMCARI....................... 68 98 67 100 / 20 5 10 10 CLOVIS.......................... 65 95 63 97 / 10 5 10 5 PORTALES........................ 66 97 64 98 / 10 5 10 5 FORT SUMNER..................... 68 96 67 98 / 10 5 10 10 ROSWELL......................... 67 97 64 99 / 10 10 10 5 PICACHO......................... 62 92 60 93 / 30 10 20 10 ELK............................. 59 85 56 86 / 40 30 20 20 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ501>529. FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ530>532. && $$ 41/40