FXUS65 KABQ 101251 AAA AFDABQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM 551 AM MST WED MAR 10 2010 .UPDATE... WILL EXPIRE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ON SCHEDULE FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN COUNTIES NEAR THE ARIZONA BORDER. IR SATELLITE CONFIRMING THAT COLDEST CLOUD TOPS HAVE NOW MOVED OFF TO THE EAST. STATEMENT ON THE STREET NOW...WITH PUBLIC ZONES UPDATED FOR HEADLINES DUE OUT SHORTLY AFTER 6 AM MST. SHY && .PREV DISCUSSION...311 AM MST WED MAR 10 2010... CURRENT MAPS...CLOSED LOW ALOFT MOVING ACROSS DE BACA AND GUADALUPE COUNTIES THIS MORNING...WITH SURFACE LOW SETTING UP OVER INTERSTATE 40 JUST ACROSS THE TEXAS LINE EAST OF TUCUMCARI. ENERGY ROUNDING THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE CLOSED LOW COMBINED WITH TIGHTER SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN HAS KEPT WIND SPEEDS HIGH OVERNIGHT. LATEST IR SATELLITE PAINTING COLDEST CLOUD TOPS MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO...NORTH OF A LINE FROM GALLUP TO TUCUMCARI...AND WILL EXPECT THIS POD TO MOVE EASTWARD WITH WESTERN END GRADUALLY WORKING SOUTHWARD AS CONTROLLING CLOSED LOW ALOFT DRIFTS FURTHER EAST. MODELS...REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK....CLOSED LOW ALOFT EJECTS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE DAY TODAY AS NEXT DISTURBANCE PACKING COLDER AIR SLIDES OUT OF UTAH TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS TONIGHT AND CROSSING INTO NORTHERN MEXICO BY THURSDAY MORNING. UPSTREAM RIDGE BUILDING FROM THE TROPICAL EAST PACIFIC TO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD TO WESTERN NEW MEXICO FRIDAY AND CLEAR TO EASTERN NEW MEXICO BY SATURDAY. NEXT INBOUND DISTURBANCE DEEPENING OVER THE WASATCH FRONT IN UTAH SATURDAY WILL ARRIVE AT THE FOUR CORNERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND CROSS TO THE BOOT HEEL SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE SHOOTING THIS FEATURE INTO SOUTH TEXAS ON MONDAY. UPSTREAM RIDGE WILL SET UP OVER NEW MEXICO THROUGH MIDWEEK. EUROPEAN CENTER SOLUTION DEVELOPING SPRAWLING CLOSED LOW SYSTEM OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FOR LAST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...WHILE GFS SOLUTION MAINTAINS STEADY AND UNINTERRUPTED NORTHWEST FLOW INTO NEW MEXICO. WILL HEDGE A LITTLE IN THE EXTENDED...BUT LEAN TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION FOR NOW BASED ON TRACK RECORD OF BETTER PERFORMANCE WITH THESE LAST ROUNDS OF SYSTEMS. NEAR TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DOUBLE DIGITS BELOW NORMAL OVER MOST SPOTS TODAY...WITH HEAVIEST SNOW CONTINUING OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND SNOW FOCUS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST PLAINS AS THE DAY WEARS ON. WILL BE WATCHING FOR SNOW TAPERING OFF OVER THE NORTHWEST PLATEAU AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS...BUT WILL BE SPRING LOADED TO EXTEND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES OVER THESE AREAS THROUGH NOON TODAY. OTHERWISE...CURRENT WINTER WEATHER WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES LOOK SOLID AND WILL CONTINUE THE CURRENT PACKAGE AS WRITTEN. FOR WINDS TODAY...HAVE FOLLOWED GUIDANCE TRENDS AND EASED BACK SOMEWHAT ON WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT EASTERN SLOPES...BUT SPEEDS SHOULD REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA LOCALLY AS CURRENTLY COVERED. BULK OF MOMENTUM ALOFT SHOULD SET UP SOUTH OF OUR CWA WITH CLOSE LOW SLATED TO BE CROSSING THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND MOVING INTO THE UPPER RED RIVER VALLEY. FOR THURSDAY...NEXT INBOUND DISTURBANCE WILL PACK A CHILLY SMACK AS IT SPRAWLS OVER THE FOUR CORNERS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AND DROPS DELIBERATELY TO THE BOOT HEEL BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE SHEARING SOUTH AND EAST INTO SOUTH TEXAS. FEATURE WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION GOING IN SPOTS...BUT COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL BE REDUCED WITH THIS SYSTEM WORKING SOUTHWARD ON A FAIRLY DRY TRAJECTORY. THURSDAY TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SOLIDLY IN THE DOUBLE DIGITS BELOW NORMAL FORESTALLING ANY HOPES FOR A QUICK TEMPERATURE REBOUND. FOR FRIDAY...DISTURBANCE CLEARING NEW MEXICO TO THE SOUTH AND EAST WILL LEAVE STATE IN BROAD NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND NORTHWEST FLOW AT THE SURFACE. CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST WILL ALLOW SOME SUNSHINE TO EASE TEMPERATURES OUT OF THE DOUBLE DIGITS BELOW NORMAL INTO THE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL RANGE. RIDGE ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO WESTERN NEW MEXICO LATE IN THE DAY. FOR SATURDAY...RIDGE MAKES QUICK CLEARING TRIP ACROSS THE STATE BRINGING TEMPERATURES FINALLY BACK INTO NORMAL TERRITORY. NEXT INBOUND DISTURBANCE OVER THE NEVADA UTAH BORDER COUNTRY WILL ARRIVE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS SATURDAY NIGHT. OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UTAH DISTURBANCE WILL BE SOLIDLY OVER NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO SUNDAY...WITH COPIOUS MOMENTUM ALOFT AND POSSIBLE SET UP FOR A BREEZY WRAP UP TO THE WEEKEND. COLD FRONT SAGGING SOUTHWARD WILL RETURN SUNDAY TEMPERATURES TO BELOW NORMAL TERRITORY. NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WORKING IN AS DISTURBANCE MOVES TO THE TEXAS BIG BEND...AND MONDAY PRECIPITATION MOSTLY OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS FOR THE DAY. SOME GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS AS WELL. TRAILING SHORTWAVE WILL GRAZE THE EASTERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY...AS UPSTREAM RIDGE FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA ACROSS WESTERN ARIZONA TO THE GREAT SALT LAKE WILL KEEP NEW MEXICO IN COOL NORTHWEST FLOW. TUESDAY TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW NORMAL. RIDGE FINALLY SPRAWLS ACROSS NEW MEXICO BY MIDWEEK WITH WARMING TREND FINALLY PUSHING TEMPERATURES BACK TOWARD NORMAL UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. SHY .AVIATION... UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL NEW MEXICO TO MOVE EASTWARD REACHING TX PANHANDLE AROUND 18Z. TIGHT GRADIENT SOUTH OF THE LOW CENTER WILL SUPPORT STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE THROUGH AROUND 00Z. PRECIPITATION MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS TO IFR/MVFR THRESHOLDS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. CONDITIONS WILL BRIEFLY IMPROVE OVER THE WEST TODAY AFTER 18Z...THOUGH ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN MOUNTAIN TOP OBSCURATIONS AND COVERAGE TO INCREASE AGAIN 00Z TO 12Z THURSDAY. ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS IFR TO MVFR TO PERSIST THROUGH PERIOD. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE STRONGEST ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TO THE TEXAS BORDER...WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH. NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 22Z. 05 .FIRE WEATHER... UPPER LEVEL LOW AND A WAVE IN ITS WAKE WILL RESULT IN MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS WITH AREAS OF RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND THURSDAY...WITH PRECIPITATION FAVORING THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. A COLD FRONT RACED ACROSS THE STATE OVERNIGHT USHERING IN COOLER AIR. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT STRONG WINDS TODAY...MAINLY FROM THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS EASTWARD TO THE TEXAS BORDER. RH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES. VENTILATION WILL BE EXCELLENT IN THIS AREA OF STRONG WINDS AND WILL RANGE FROM GOOD TO VERY GOOD ELSEWHERE. RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN ON FRIDAY WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW FAVORING THE HIGH TERRAIN AND THE EXTREME EASTERN PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE STATEWIDE BUT WILL REMAIN 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT VENTILATION WILL BE LIMITED TO THE EASTERN PLAINS. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FLATTENS AS IT MOVES OVER NEW MEXICO ON FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM. AT THIS POINT...MODELS INDICATE PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN NEW MEXICO EARLY SUNDAY SPREADING EASTWARD LATE SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY. 05 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ533-535>538. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ517-518-529-531. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM MST THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ503-504-510>516-527-528-530. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ521>524-526-539-540. && $$ SHY