FXUS65 KABQ 150920 AFDABQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM 320 AM MDT MON MAR 15 2010 ...HEAVY SNOW TO CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO TODAY... .DISCUSSION...STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW HAS BEEN SLUGGISHLY CHURNING OVER NORTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO...AND HAS ONLY RECENTLY STARTED TO JOG FARTHER SOUTH INTO WEST CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE STATE. PRECIPITATION SHIELD IS SWELLING OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND THIS WILL TRANSLATE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY AS THE LOW MAKES IT TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. SEVERAL AREAS HAVE ALREADY MET WARNING CRITERIA IN THE NORTH CENTRAL ZONES WITH SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS...AND CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...HIGHLANDS...AND GRADUALLY THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL MEET WARNING CRITERIA. AM A LITTLE CONCERNED THAT POCKETS OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST THE LATE MORNING HOURS OVER THE SANGRES/JEMEZ...SO HAVE EXTENDED THIS WARNING SEGMENT UNTIL THE LATE AFTERNOON. AS EXPECTED...TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS HAVE REMAINED RELATIVELY HIGH IN THE EAST CENTRAL TO SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS...AND THESE AREAS MAY STILL HAVE DIFFICULTY CHANGING OVER TO SNOW AS THE PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING. WILL STAY CAUTIOUS...AND WILL KEEP ADVISORY IN TACT ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS...BUT WILL EXPIRE THIS SEGMENT OF THE ADVISORY AT 18Z AS WELL AS OTHER REMAINING ADVISORY SEGMENTS IN THE RIO GRANDE AND ADJACENT AREAS. SOME OTHER INDIVIDUAL LOWER TERRAIN ZONES COULD ALSO BE EXPIRED BY LATE MORNING AS TEMPERATURES AND SNOW LEVELS RISE...BUT WILL LET DAY SHIFT MONITOR THESE TRENDS AND ADJUST AS NEEDED. HAVE UNDERCUT MOS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURE FORECASTS TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER LOCALES THAT HAVE ALREADY ACQUIRED SIGNIFICANT SNOW PACK. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE QUITE VARIABLE...BUT COULD REACH RANGES AS HIGH AS 6000 TO 7000 FEET IN SOME OF THE CENTRAL ZONES. WHILE THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE SHIFTING INTO WEST TEXAS AFTER DARK...THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND SOME MODERATE SCATTERED ACTIVITY HOLDING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS. NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL FOR TUESDAY...AND A BROAD 582 DAM UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES. THIS WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE...AND RISING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES WILL LEAD TO A WARM UP. HAVE AGAIN UNDERCUT TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IN MANY AREAS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE SNOW PACK THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WARMER RIDGING TREND CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY AND INTO MOST OF THURSDAY BEFORE A CLIPPER QUICKLY SWEEPS TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE. PRECIPITATION STILL LOOKS TO FAVOR THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES WHILE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOP OVER A LARGER FOOTPRINT OF THE STATE. DRIER AIR WILL THEN WORK INTO THE STATE FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS THE UPPER PATTERN IS SUBJECTED TO A DAMPENED RIDGING SCENARIO. 52 && .AVIATION... UPPER LOW TO MAKE A VERY SLOW PROGRESSION THROUGH CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO TODAY. WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND VSBYS EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO WITH OCCASIONAL LIFR CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIER SNOW BANDS. IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW FOR THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST AS RAIN AND OR SNOW SHOWERS INCREASE IN COVERAGE ESPECIALLY NEAR KROW THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL IMPROVE FOR ALL AREAS AFTER 06Z TUESDAY. AREAS OF FOG MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY TUESDAY FAVORING THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VALLEYS AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS AND HIGHLANDS. NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 21Z. KW && .FIRE WEATHER... THREAT FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER IS LOW THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK. MAIN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL TRANSLATE SLOWLY THROUGH NEW MEXICO TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH HIGH CHANCES FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION CONTINUING. AREAS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WILL BE FAVORED FOR ADDITIONAL MODERATE TO SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS AS WELL AS THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS AND HIGHLANDS. DRYING WILL GRADUALLY SETTLE IN FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING WELL AFTER 06Z TUESDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS. OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL BE EXCELLENT STATE WIDE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE STATE FROM THE WEST BY TUESDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. AMPLE WARMING WILL FOLLOW BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST LOCALES. VENTILATION RATES WILL LIKELY BE POOR WHILE THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE STATE BUT RATES WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE BY THURSDAY AS FORECAST MODELS INDICATE A BREAK DOWN OF THE RIDGE LEADING TO MORE ZONAL OR EVEN SLIGHTLY SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. THE NEXT TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST BY THE ECMWF TO PASS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE. AS THE SYSTEM BYPASSES THE STATE...A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT COULD OOZE IN FROM THE NORTHEAST DURING FRIDAY. THIS FRONT COULD BRING INCREASING MOISTURE MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST PLAINS WHILE BREEZY CONDITIONS TAKE SHAPE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. LONG RANGE ECWMF AND GFS INDICATE A MORE BENIGN SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK AS THE FLOW ALOFT FLATTENS. THIS WOULD FAVOR AT LEAST BREEZY AND DRIER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN AND EASTERN PLAINS. KW && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... FARMINGTON...................... 48 25 58 28 / 5 5 0 0 DULCE........................... 43 16 51 19 / 10 10 0 0 CUBA............................ 42 15 51 22 / 20 5 0 0 GALLUP.......................... 44 19 57 21 / 10 0 0 0 EL MORRO........................ 43 21 52 23 / 20 5 0 0 GRANTS.......................... 43 20 55 22 / 20 5 0 0 QUEMADO......................... 47 19 54 22 / 20 5 0 0 GLENWOOD........................ 59 30 65 33 / 5 0 0 0 CHAMA........................... 40 6 46 16 / 20 10 0 0 LOS ALAMOS...................... 37 20 51 26 / 30 5 0 0 PECOS........................... 39 18 49 25 / 50 10 0 0 CERRO/QUESTA.................... 38 10 48 17 / 40 10 0 0 RED RIVER....................... 33 13 41 18 / 50 10 0 0 ANGEL FIRE...................... 35 9 43 14 / 50 10 0 0 TAOS............................ 41 16 51 20 / 30 5 0 0 ESPANOLA........................ 49 22 58 29 / 30 5 0 0 SANTA FE........................ 40 22 52 27 / 40 5 0 0 SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 41 24 55 29 / 30 5 0 0 ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 44 31 57 33 / 50 5 0 0 ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 46 33 59 35 / 50 5 0 0 ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 48 28 61 30 / 40 5 0 0 ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 48 29 59 32 / 40 5 0 0 LOS LUNAS....................... 51 29 61 32 / 50 0 0 0 RIO RANCHO...................... 46 29 59 33 / 40 5 0 0 SOCORRO......................... 51 30 61 32 / 50 5 0 0 SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 40 18 50 23 / 60 10 0 0 MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 41 20 53 28 / 80 10 0 0 CLINES CORNERS.................. 32 22 51 29 / 90 10 0 0 GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 41 25 54 29 / 80 10 0 0 CARRIZOZO....................... 46 28 59 32 / 70 10 5 0 RUIDOSO......................... 38 22 50 30 / 80 20 5 0 CAPULIN......................... 37 19 51 30 / 60 5 0 0 RATON........................... 39 20 55 25 / 50 5 0 0 LAS VEGAS....................... 34 21 50 27 / 70 10 0 0 CLAYTON......................... 39 28 59 33 / 60 10 0 0 ROY............................. 37 25 55 35 / 60 10 0 0 CONCHAS......................... 41 28 62 32 / 70 10 0 0 SANTA ROSA...................... 39 28 61 34 / 90 10 0 0 TUCUMCARI....................... 42 29 60 32 / 90 20 0 0 CLOVIS.......................... 42 31 57 35 / 80 30 0 0 PORTALES........................ 43 30 59 34 / 80 30 0 0 FORT SUMNER..................... 44 29 61 33 / 90 20 0 0 ROSWELL......................... 44 36 60 34 / 80 20 0 0 PICACHO......................... 41 29 57 33 / 80 20 5 0 ELK............................. 39 27 53 30 / 90 30 5 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ507-519-520-525-530-531-534-537. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ511>515-518-521>524-526>529-532-533-539-540. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ504>506-510-516-517. && $$ 52/17